Football · USA USL Championship · 02/11, 03:00

Prediction: Sacramento Republic vs Tulsa

Team pages: Sacramento Republic · Tulsa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.38Total

Sacramento Republic1.64

Tulsa0.74

1X2

59% 25% 17%

Sacramento Republic Draw Tulsa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Sacramento Republic 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

DDWDWWDDWW

Tulsa 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

WDLDDWDDLL

Head-to-head

Sacramento Republic 1–2–3 Tulsa (6 last)

Tulsa1-1Sacramento Republic
Tulsa1-0Sacramento Republic
Sacramento Republic2-0Tulsa
Sacramento Republic0-1Tulsa
Tulsa1-0Sacramento Republic
Tulsa0-0Sacramento Republic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sacramento Republic 1562 · Tulsa 1487

	Sacramento Republic	Draw	Tulsa
Our model	58%	27%	16%
Market	60%	23%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sacramento Republic (rating 1562 vs 1487).
H2H favours Tulsa: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sacramento Republic	Tulsa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1	0.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.9	1.1 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.00

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.93

2 (+1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.13
2	5.25 → 5.25	Pinn 5.58 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3% Pinnacle margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:44 +51’	1.53	4.00	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:07 +19’	1.62	3.90	5.02
06:59 +25’	1.59▼	3.97▲	5.18▲
09:24 +1’	1.53▼	4.13▲	5.58▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sacramento Republic 1–2–3 Tulsa

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
04/10/26 USA USL Championship	Tulsa	1-1 HT 1-0	Sacramento Republic
06/08/26 USA USL Championship	Tulsa	1-0 HT 0-0	Sacramento Republic
08/03/26 USA USL Championship	Sacramento Republic	2-0 HT 0-0	Tulsa
08/06/25 USA USL Championship	Sacramento Republic	0-1 HT 0-1	Tulsa
29/03/25 USA USL Championship	Tulsa	1-0 HT 0-0	Sacramento Republic
23/06/24 USA USL Championship	Tulsa	0-0 HT 0-0	Sacramento Republic

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	New Mexico United	30	15	7	8	45	34	52
2	Sacramento Republic	30	13	12	5	42	28	51
3	El Paso Locomotive FC	30	15	5	10	48	38	50
4	Lexington SC	30	14	6	10	57	39	48
5	Colorado Switchbacks FC	30	13	8	9	44	38	47
6	San Antonio FC	30	11	12	7	32	30	45
7	Tulsa	30	11	10	9	34	31	43
8	Phoenix Rising FC	30	10	10	10	45	46	40
9	Orange County SC	30	10	9	11	39	49	39
10	Oakland Roots	30	9	11	10	39	40	38
11	Las Vegas Lights FC	30	10	6	14	41	48	36
12	Monterey Bay FC	30	6	6	18	32	52	24

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sacramento Republic	Tulsa
Oakland Roots	3-2 W	2-4 L
El Paso Locomotive FC	1-0 W	1-1 D
Colorado Switchbacks FC	1-1 D	0-2 L
New Mexico United	3-2 W	1-0 W
San Antonio FC	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sacramento Republic (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sacramento Republic

DDWDWWDDWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	1-2	3-2	3	2	W
18/10	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
11/10	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
04/10	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
01/10	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	1-1	3-2	14	7	W
27/09	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	1-0	3-2	2	6	W
21/09	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	12	3	D
13/09	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	7	0	W
06/09	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	11	5	D
30/08	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	6	1	D

Tulsa

WDLDDWDDLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-2	3	6	L
18/10	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	1-1	2-4	4	0	L
10/10	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
04/10	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
01/10	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	8	6	W
26/09	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-1	3	8	D
20/09	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	2-0	2-2	3	6	D
13/09	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	0-1	1-2	2	2	L
06/09	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	1	6	D
30/08	Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	4	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sacramento Republic vs Tulsa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sacramento Republic win (59%). Probabilities: Sacramento Republic 59%, draw 25%, Tulsa 17%.

How many goals are expected in Sacramento Republic vs Tulsa?

The model expects 2.38 goals (Sacramento Republic 1.64 · Tulsa 0.74), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sacramento Republic vs Tulsa?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.