Football · USA USL Championship · 08/11, 04:00

Prediction: Sacramento Republic vs El Paso Locomotive FC

Team pages: Sacramento Republic · El Paso Locomotive FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

Sacramento Republic1.62

El Paso Locomotive FC1.07

1X2

49% 27% 24%

Sacramento Republic Draw El Paso Locomotive FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Sacramento Republic 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DWDWWDDWWW

El Paso Locomotive FC 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWDLWLLW

Head-to-head

Sacramento Republic 3–3 El Paso Locomotive FC (6 last)

El Paso Locomotive FC0-1Sacramento Republic
Sacramento Republic1-2El Paso Locomotive FC
El Paso Locomotive FC1-0Sacramento Republic
Sacramento Republic3-0El Paso Locomotive FC
El Paso Locomotive FC2-1Sacramento Republic
Sacramento Republic2-0El Paso Locomotive FC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sacramento Republic	El Paso Locomotive FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.9	1.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 6.6	2.7 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.94

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:30

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61▼	Pinn 1.61
X	3.95 → 3.97▲	Pinn 3.97
2	5.20 → 5.20	Pinn 5.20

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:58 +26’	1.61	3.95	5.20
18:22 +8’	1.61▼	3.97▲	5.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sacramento Republic 3–0–3 El Paso Locomotive FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/10/26 USA USL Championship	El Paso Locomotive FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Sacramento Republic
29/03/26 USA USL Championship	Sacramento Republic	1-2 HT 0-2	El Paso Locomotive FC
24/08/25 USA USL Championship	El Paso Locomotive FC	1-0 HT 1-0	Sacramento Republic
13/07/25 USA USL Championship	Sacramento Republic	3-0 HT 1-0	El Paso Locomotive FC
20/10/24 USA USL Championship	El Paso Locomotive FC	2-1 HT 2-1	Sacramento Republic
15/08/24 USA USL Championship	Sacramento Republic	2-0 HT 1-0	El Paso Locomotive FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	New Mexico United	30	15	7	8	45	34	52
2	Sacramento Republic	30	13	12	5	42	28	51
3	El Paso Locomotive FC	30	15	5	10	48	38	50
4	Lexington SC	30	14	6	10	57	39	48
5	Colorado Switchbacks FC	30	13	8	9	44	38	47
6	San Antonio FC	30	11	12	7	32	30	45
7	Tulsa	30	11	10	9	34	31	43
8	Phoenix Rising FC	30	10	10	10	45	46	40
9	Orange County SC	30	10	9	11	39	49	39
10	Oakland Roots	30	9	11	10	39	40	38
11	Las Vegas Lights FC	30	10	6	14	41	48	36
12	Monterey Bay FC	30	6	6	18	32	52	24

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sacramento Republic	El Paso Locomotive FC
Tulsa	1-0 W	1-1 D
New Mexico United	3-2 W	0-1 L
San Antonio FC	0-0 D	2-1 W
Orange County SC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sacramento Republic

DWDWWDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
25/10	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	1-2	3-2	3	2	W
18/10	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
11/10	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
04/10	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
01/10	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	1-1	3-2	14	7	W
27/09	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	1-0	3-2	2	6	W
21/09	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	12	3	D
13/09	Detroit City FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-0	7	0	W
06/09	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	11	5	D

El Paso Locomotive FC

WWWWDLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-1	4	11	W
25/10	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
18/10	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
11/10	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	2-0	2-1	10	6	W
04/10	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-3	3	2	L
26/09	Tulsa USA USL Championship	1-1	1-1	4	8	D
20/09	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	1-1	3-1	3	8	W
13/09	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	2-0	2-1	2	4	W
30/08	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	3-1	4-1	7	2	W
27/08	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	2-1	3	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sacramento Republic vs El Paso Locomotive FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sacramento Republic win (49%). Probabilities: Sacramento Republic 49%, draw 27%, El Paso Locomotive FC 24%.

How many goals are expected in Sacramento Republic vs El Paso Locomotive FC?

The model expects 2.7 goals (Sacramento Republic 1.62 · El Paso Locomotive FC 1.07), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sacramento Republic vs El Paso Locomotive FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.