Football · USA USL Championship · 16/11, 01:00
Prediction: New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic
Team pages: New Mexico United · Sacramento Republic
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.6Total
New Mexico United1.24
Sacramento Republic1.36
1X2
New Mexico United
Draw
Sacramento Republic
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
New Mexico United
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Sacramento Republic
7-3-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
New Mexico United
2–4
Sacramento Republic
(6 last)
- New Mexico United2-3Sacramento Republic
- Sacramento Republic0-1New Mexico United
- New Mexico United0-2Sacramento Republic
- Sacramento Republic2-1New Mexico United
- Sacramento Republic4-0New Mexico United
- New Mexico United3-1Sacramento Republic
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · New Mexico United 1543 · Sacramento Republic 1564
| New Mexico United | Draw | Sacramento Republic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 29% | 39% |
| Market | 33% | 27% | 39% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Sacramento Republic: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| New Mexico United | Sacramento Republic | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.1 | 1.6 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 3.7 | 2.8 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.6 | 3.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · New Mexico United 2–0–4 Sacramento Republic
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/26 USA USL Championship | New Mexico United | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Sacramento Republic |
| 21/06/26 USA USL Championship | Sacramento Republic | 0-1 HT 0-0 | New Mexico United |
| 31/08/25 USA USL Championship | New Mexico United | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Sacramento Republic |
| 09/03/25 USA USL Championship | Sacramento Republic | 2-1 HT 1-1 | New Mexico United |
| 30/09/24 USA USL Championship | Sacramento Republic | 4-0 HT 2-0 | New Mexico United |
| 19/09/24 USA USL Championship | New Mexico United | 3-1 HT 0-0 | Sacramento Republic |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Mexico United | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 45 | 34 | 52 |
| 2 | Sacramento Republic | 30 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 42 | 28 | 51 |
| 3 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 48 | 38 | 50 |
| 4 | Lexington SC | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 57 | 39 | 48 |
| 5 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 44 | 38 | 47 |
| 6 | San Antonio FC | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 32 | 30 | 45 |
| 7 | Tulsa | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 34 | 31 | 43 |
| 8 | Phoenix Rising FC | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 45 | 46 | 40 |
| 9 | Orange County SC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 | 49 | 39 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 39 | 40 | 38 |
| 11 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 41 | 48 | 36 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 32 | 52 | 24 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | New Mexico United | Sacramento Republic |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado Switchbacks FC | 4-0 W | 1-1 D |
| El Paso Locomotive FC | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| San Antonio FC | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Tulsa | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Sacramento Republic (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
New Mexico United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
3-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 02/11 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 25/10 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 18/10 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 11/10 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
2-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 05/10 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 01/10 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 27/09 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 20/09 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 17/09 | Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship |
2-1 | 4-4 | 0 | 5 | D |
Sacramento Republic
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 02/11 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 25/10 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
1-2 | 3-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 18/10 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 11/10 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 04/10 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 01/10 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | 14 | 7 | W |
| 27/09 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 21/09 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | Detroit City FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Sacramento Republic win (39%). Probabilities: New Mexico United 33%, draw 28%, Sacramento Republic 39%.
How many goals are expected in New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?
The model expects 2.6 goals (New Mexico United 1.24 · Sacramento Republic 1.36), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.