Football · USA USL League One · 09/11, 01:00

Prediction: Charlotte Independence vs Forward Madison FC

Team pages: Charlotte Independence · Forward Madison FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.01Total

Charlotte Independence1.65

Forward Madison FC1.36

1X2

44% 25% 31%

Charlotte Independence Draw Forward Madison FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Charlotte Independence 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWDWWWLW

Forward Madison FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWLDLWDW

Head-to-head

Charlotte Independence 1–3–2 Forward Madison FC (6 last)

Forward Madison FC1-1Charlotte Independence
Charlotte Independence3-1Forward Madison FC
Forward Madison FC1-1Charlotte Independence
Charlotte Independence1-1Forward Madison FC
Forward Madison FC2-0Charlotte Independence
Charlotte Independence2-4Forward Madison FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Charlotte Independence 1563 · Forward Madison FC 1506

	Charlotte Independence	Draw	Forward Madison FC
Our model	43%	26%	31%
Market	44%	24%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Charlotte Independence (rating 1563 vs 1506).
H2H favours Forward Madison FC: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Charlotte Independence	Forward Madison FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.6	1.2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.1	2.2 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	5.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.70

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 00:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.05▲	Pinn 2.11
X	3.75 → 3.70▼	Bet365 3.70
2	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 3.06 ★

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:05 +2’	2.00	3.75	2.88
05:16 +5’	2.20▲	3.60▼	2.63▼
10:44 +36’	2.10▼	3.60	2.75▲
22:01	2.10	3.60	2.80▲
23:59 +1’	2.05▼	3.70▲	2.88▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:10 +57’	2.33	3.53	2.69
20:22 +84’	2.28▼	3.52▼	2.77▲
11:26 +85’	2.22▼	3.53▲	2.85▲
14:54 +3’	2.30▲	3.53	2.72▼
21:52 +9’	2.11▼	3.58▲	3.02▲
23:50 +10’	2.11	3.70▲	3.06▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Charlotte Independence 1–3–2 Forward Madison FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
23/08/26 USA USL League One	Forward Madison FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Charlotte Independence
24/05/26 USA USL League One	Charlotte Independence	3-1 HT 2-1	Forward Madison FC
17/07/25 USA USL League One	Forward Madison FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Charlotte Independence
12/04/25 USA USL League One	Charlotte Independence	1-1 HT 0-0	Forward Madison FC
03/11/24 USA USL League One	Forward Madison FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Charlotte Independence
05/10/24 USA USL League One	Charlotte Independence	2-4 HT 1-2	Forward Madison FC

Standings · USA USL League One

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	32	20	6	6	74	46	66
2	Union Omaha	32	19	5	8	54	34	62
3	AC Boise	32	17	7	8	51	41	58
4	Forward Madison FC	32	16	8	8	54	30	56
5	Spokane Velocity FC	32	16	6	10	50	44	54
6	One Knoxville SC	32	15	9	8	52	36	54
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	32	14	5	13	51	45	47
8	FC Naples	32	14	4	14	39	46	46
9	Fort Wayne FC	32	12	9	11	47	42	45
10	Westchester SC	32	11	7	14	55	51	40
11	Sarasota Paradise	32	11	7	14	49	51	40
12	Corpus Christi FC	32	9	10	13	36	51	37
13	Antelope Valley Alta	32	8	10	14	40	48	34
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	32	8	10	14	48	58	34
15	Greenville Triumph SC	32	8	6	18	37	60	30
16	New York Cosmos	32	7	6	19	40	66	27
17	Richmond Kickers	32	7	5	20	37	65	26

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Charlotte Independence	Forward Madison FC
Portland Hearts of Pine	1-4 L	2-0 W
Sarasota Paradise	3-2 W	1-1 D
Fort Wayne FC	1-1 D	0-0 D
Westchester SC	5-4 W	2-3 L
Union Omaha	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Charlotte Independence

LWDWDWWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	FC Naples USA USL League One	2-0	5-1	5	4	W
24/10	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-1	1-4	6	3	L
18/10	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	1-0	3-0	4	5	W
11/10	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	3-0	3-0	6	2	W
04/10	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	1-1	3-2	6	8	W
26/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
20/09	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	2-1	2-1	8	8	W
17/09	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
13/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	4-2	5-4	4	7	W
06/09	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	3	5	L

Forward Madison FC

WDLWLDLWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	2-1	2-1	4	5	W
25/10	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
18/10	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	2-0	2-0	10	3	W
11/10	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-2	2-3	3	5	L
04/10	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	12	4	D
27/09	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
20/09	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-0	3-0	6	12	W
17/09	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
13/09	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
06/09	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	2	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Charlotte Independence vs Forward Madison FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Charlotte Independence win (44%). Probabilities: Charlotte Independence 44%, draw 25%, Forward Madison FC 31%.

How many goals are expected in Charlotte Independence vs Forward Madison FC?

The model expects 3.01 goals (Charlotte Independence 1.65 · Forward Madison FC 1.36), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Charlotte Independence vs Forward Madison FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.