Football · USA USL League One · 02/11, 01:00

Prediction: Charlotte Independence vs FC Naples

Team pages: Charlotte Independence · FC Naples

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.68Total

Charlotte Independence2.26

FC Naples1.42

1X2

55% 22% 22%

Charlotte Independence Draw FC Naples

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Charlotte Independence 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDWDWWWL

FC Naples 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LLDDWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Charlotte Independence 2–2 FC Naples (4 last)

Charlotte Independence4-3FC Naples
FC Naples1-5Charlotte Independence
FC Naples2-0Charlotte Independence
Charlotte Independence0-1FC Naples

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Charlotte Independence 1568 · FC Naples 1529

	Charlotte Independence	Draw	FC Naples
Our model	56%	22%	23%
Market	55%	23%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.68 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Charlotte Independence	FC Naples
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.7	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.1	1.7 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	5.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.90

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Pinn 1.66
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.33 ★
2	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.21

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6% Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:45 +9’	1.61	3.90	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:12 +67’	1.65	4.26	4.12
21:05 +1’	1.64▼	4.28▲	4.13▲
21:50 +13’	1.66▲	4.19▼	4.12▼
23:02	1.67▲	4.26▲	4.20▲
00:00 +1’	1.66▼	4.33▲	4.21▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Charlotte Independence 2–0–2 FC Naples

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 USA USL League One	Charlotte Independence	4-3 HT 1-1	FC Naples
04/06/26 USA USL League One	FC Naples	1-5 HT 0-3	Charlotte Independence
26/10/25 USA USL League One	FC Naples	2-0 HT 0-0	Charlotte Independence
13/09/25 USA USL League One	Charlotte Independence	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Naples

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	32	20	6	6	74	46	66
2	Union Omaha	32	19	5	8	54	34	62
3	AC Boise	32	17	7	8	51	41	58
4	Forward Madison FC	32	16	8	8	54	30	56
5	Spokane Velocity FC	32	16	6	10	50	44	54
6	One Knoxville SC	32	15	9	8	52	36	54
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	32	14	5	13	51	45	47
8	FC Naples	32	14	4	14	39	46	46
9	Fort Wayne FC	32	12	9	11	47	42	45
10	Westchester SC	32	11	7	14	55	51	40
11	Sarasota Paradise	32	11	7	14	49	51	40
12	Corpus Christi FC	32	9	10	13	36	51	37
13	Antelope Valley Alta	32	8	10	14	40	48	34
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	32	8	10	14	48	58	34
15	Greenville Triumph SC	32	8	6	18	37	60	30
16	New York Cosmos	32	7	6	19	40	66	27
17	Richmond Kickers	32	7	5	20	37	65	26

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Charlotte Independence	FC Naples
Greenville Triumph SC	3-0 W	0-4 L
New York Cosmos	3-0 W	2-1 W
Sarasota Paradise	3-2 W	3-2 W
Fort Wayne FC	1-1 D	2-2 D
Richmond Kickers	2-1 W	2-0 W
AC Boise	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Charlotte Independence (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Charlotte Independence

WLWDWDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-1	1-4	6	3	L
18/10	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	1-0	3-0	4	5	W
11/10	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	3-0	3-0	6	2	W
04/10	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	1-1	3-2	6	8	W
26/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
20/09	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	2-1	2-1	8	8	W
17/09	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
13/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	4-2	5-4	4	7	W
06/09	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
03/09	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-0	3-2	5	4	W

FC Naples

LLDDWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
22/10	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	1-1	3-2	4	6	W
11/10	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
08/10	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
04/10	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	10	3	W
27/09	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	3	10	W
20/09	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	2-0	2-2	3	8	D
12/09	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
06/09	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
30/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-1	0-4	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Charlotte Independence vs FC Naples?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Charlotte Independence win (55%). Probabilities: Charlotte Independence 55%, draw 22%, FC Naples 22%.

How many goals are expected in Charlotte Independence vs FC Naples?

The model expects 3.68 goals (Charlotte Independence 2.26 · FC Naples 1.42), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Charlotte Independence vs FC Naples?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.