Football · Argentina Championship Women · 06/11, 18:00

Prediction: CA Independiente Women vs San Lorenzo (W)

Team pages: CA Independiente Women · San Lorenzo (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

CA Independiente Women0.77

San Lorenzo (W)2.25

1X2

10% 20% 70%

CA Independiente Women Draw San Lorenzo (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

0-2 12%

Recent form · 10 last

CA Independiente Women 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLLLWL

San Lorenzo (W) 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDLDWWWDDW

Head-to-head

CA Independiente Women 2–2–2 San Lorenzo (W) (6 last)

San Lorenzo (W)2-0CA Independiente Women
San Lorenzo (W)1-1CA Independiente Women
CA Independiente Women0-1San Lorenzo (W)
San Lorenzo (W)0-1CA Independiente Women
San Lorenzo (W)2-2CA Independiente Women
San Lorenzo (W)1-4CA Independiente Women

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Independiente Women 1444 · San Lorenzo (W) 1559

	CA Independiente Women	Draw	San Lorenzo (W)
Our model	10%	19%	70%
Market	10%	21%	69%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San Lorenzo (W) (rating 1444 vs 1559).
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Independiente Women	San Lorenzo (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.4	1.7 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	1.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.4	1.8 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

19.00

X4.33

21.28

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.82

2 (-1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	9.00 → 9.00	Bet365 9.00
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.28 → 1.28	Pinn 1.39 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
21:53 +4’	9.00	4.33	1.28

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:49 +8’	7.62	4.26	1.39

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Independiente Women 2–2–2 San Lorenzo (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 Argentina Championship Women	San Lorenzo (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	CA Independiente Women
23/05/25 Argentina Championship Women	San Lorenzo (W)	1-1 HT 0-1	CA Independiente Women
25/08/24 Argentina Championship Women	CA Independiente Women	0-1 HT 0-1	San Lorenzo (W)
29/03/24 Argentina Championship Women	San Lorenzo (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	CA Independiente Women
09/10/23 Argentina Championship Women	San Lorenzo (W)	2-2 HT 1-1	CA Independiente Women
07/05/23 Argentina Championship Women	San Lorenzo (W)	1-4 HT 0-0	CA Independiente Women

Standings · Argentina Championship Women · Primera Division A, Women 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boca Juniors (W)	11	8	1	2	18	8	25
2	San Luis FC (W)	11	8	0	3	20	13	24
3	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W)	10	6	3	1	17	7	21
4	Banfield (W)	11	6	3	2	17	9	21
5	San Lorenzo (W)	10	5	4	1	17	8	19
6	Racing Club (W)	11	5	2	4	20	12	17
7	Belgrano (W)	11	5	2	4	19	12	17
8	Social Atletico Television (W)	11	4	5	2	10	7	17
9	Lanus (W)	11	4	3	4	9	11	15
10	River Plate (W)	8	4	2	2	12	6	14
11	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	10	4	2	4	17	17	14
12	Union Santa Fe (W)	11	2	4	5	10	19	10
13	CA Independiente Women	11	3	0	8	13	27	9
14	Huracan (W)	11	2	1	8	9	19	7
15	Gimnasia LP (W)	11	2	1	8	5	18	7
16	Newell's Old Boys (W)	11	0	1	10	4	24	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Independiente Women	San Lorenzo (W)
CA Talleres de Cordoba (W)	1-3 L	1-2 L
Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	3-2 W	2-2 D
Boca Juniors (W)	1-2 L	2-1 W
Social Atletico Television (W)	0-2 L	0-0 D
Huracan (W)	3-2 W	3-1 W
Belgrano (W)	0-6 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: San Lorenzo (W) (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Independiente Women

LLWLWLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	1-3	1	5	L
25/09	Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	3-2	3	6	W
19/09	Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	1-2	1	4	L
11/09	Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	1-2	2	5	L
05/09	San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-3	2	2	L
31/08	Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	3-1	5	5	W
24/08	Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-2	0-2	3	0	L
17/08	Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	3-2	6	2	W
10/08	Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	0-6	0	4	L
03/08	River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-1	11	6	L

San Lorenzo (W)

WDLDWWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women	3-0	3-1	6	4	W
27/09	Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
11/09	Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	1-1	9	1	D
04/09	Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women	2-0	2-0	5	1	W
30/08	Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women	3-0	4-0	1	3	W
24/08	Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
17/08	Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
10/08	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	1-2	2	6	L
03/08	Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	2-2	2	7	D
27/07	Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	2-1	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Independiente Women vs San Lorenzo (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an San Lorenzo (W) win (70%). Probabilities: CA Independiente Women 10%, draw 20%, San Lorenzo (W) 70%.

How many goals are expected in CA Independiente Women vs San Lorenzo (W)?

The model expects 3.02 goals (CA Independiente Women 0.77 · San Lorenzo (W) 2.25), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Independiente Women vs San Lorenzo (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.