Football · Argentina Championship Women · 12/11, 20:00

Prediction: Gimnasia LP (W) vs Belgrano (W)

Team pages: Gimnasia LP (W) · Belgrano (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Gimnasia LP (W)0.97

Belgrano (W)1.49

1X2

23% 29% 48%

Gimnasia LP (W) Draw Belgrano (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Gimnasia LP (W) 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLWDWL

Belgrano (W) 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWWWLDLW

Head-to-head

Gimnasia LP (W) 0–1–4 Belgrano (W) (5 last)

Belgrano (W)2-1Gimnasia LP (W)
Gimnasia LP (W)1-2Belgrano (W)
Gimnasia LP (W)1-1Belgrano (W)
Belgrano (W)2-0Gimnasia LP (W)
Gimnasia LP (W)0-1Belgrano (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gimnasia LP (W) 1444 · Belgrano (W) 1537

	Gimnasia LP (W)	Draw	Belgrano (W)
Our model	23%	29%	48%
Market	23%	29%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Belgrano (W) (rating 1444 vs 1537).
H2H favours Belgrano (W): 4-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gimnasia LP (W)	Belgrano (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1.6	1.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.4	1.6 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.3	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.80

X3.10

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.90 → 3.80▼	Pinn 4.19 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.17
2	1.85 → 1.85	Pinn 1.88

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.6% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
21:01 +2’	3.90	3.10	1.85
23:01	3.80▼	3.10	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:50 +13’	4.19	3.17	1.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gimnasia LP (W) 0–1–4 Belgrano (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/07/26 Argentina Championship Women	Belgrano (W)	2-1	Gimnasia LP (W)
02/05/25 Argentina Championship Women	Gimnasia LP (W)	1-2 HT 1-1	Belgrano (W)
25/08/24 Argentina Championship Women	Gimnasia LP (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Belgrano (W)
29/03/24 Argentina Championship Women	Belgrano (W)	2-0 HT 0-0	Gimnasia LP (W)
22/04/23 Argentina Championship Women	Gimnasia LP (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	Belgrano (W)

Standings · Argentina Championship Women · Primera Division A, Women 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boca Juniors (W)	12	8	2	2	19	9	26
2	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W)	11	7	3	1	20	9	24
3	Banfield (W)	12	7	3	2	18	9	24
4	San Luis FC (W)	12	8	0	4	20	15	24
5	San Lorenzo (W)	11	6	4	1	22	9	22
6	Belgrano (W)	12	6	2	4	20	12	20
7	Racing Club (W)	12	5	3	4	22	14	18
8	River Plate (W)	9	5	2	2	14	7	17
9	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	11	5	2	4	19	17	17
10	Social Atletico Television (W)	12	4	5	3	10	8	17
11	Lanus (W)	12	4	4	4	10	12	16
12	Union Santa Fe (W)	12	2	4	6	12	22	10
13	CA Independiente Women	12	3	0	9	14	32	9
14	Huracan (W)	12	2	2	8	11	21	8
15	Gimnasia LP (W)	12	2	1	9	6	20	7
16	Newell's Old Boys (W)	12	0	1	11	4	25	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gimnasia LP (W)	Belgrano (W)
Newell's Old Boys (W)	1-0 W	1-0 W
Racing Club (W)	0-4 L	1-3 L
San Lorenzo (W)	0-2 L	1-1 D
CA Talleres de Cordoba (W)	1-2 L	0-3 L
Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	0-2 L	3-1 W
Boca Juniors (W)	0-2 L	2-0 W
Lanus (W)	0-1 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 6 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Belgrano (W) (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gimnasia LP (W)

LLLLLLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
04/10	Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-0	6	1	W
28/09	Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	1-1	4	1	D
18/09	Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
12/09	Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-3	0-4	2	7	L
04/09	San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-2	0-2	4	1	L
30/08	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
24/08	Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-2	7	5	L
16/08	Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
08/08	Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-1	4	4	L

Belgrano (W)

WDLWWWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
02/10	Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	1-3	2	7	L
27/09	San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
19/09	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-2	0-3	3	5	L
11/09	Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	3-1	3	1	W
05/09	Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	2-0	1	2	W
30/08	Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	3-1	2	2	W
22/08	San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
16/08	Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	1-1	10	0	D
10/08	CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women	1-0	6-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gimnasia LP (W) vs Belgrano (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Belgrano (W) win (48%). Probabilities: Gimnasia LP (W) 23%, draw 29%, Belgrano (W) 48%.

How many goals are expected in Gimnasia LP (W) vs Belgrano (W)?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Gimnasia LP (W) 0.97 · Belgrano (W) 1.49), with a 57% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Gimnasia LP (W) vs Belgrano (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.