Football · Argentina Championship Women · 16/11, 15:00

Prediction: Boca Juniors (W) vs Ferro Carril Oeste (W)

Team pages: Boca Juniors (W) · Ferro Carril Oeste (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Boca Juniors (W)2.14

Ferro Carril Oeste (W)1.02

1X2

61% 23% 16%

Boca Juniors (W) Draw Ferro Carril Oeste (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Boca Juniors (W) 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDLWWWWWDW

Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLLWLDWW

Head-to-head

Boca Juniors (W) 2–2–2 Ferro Carril Oeste (W) (6 last)

Ferro Carril Oeste (W)3-3Boca Juniors (W)
Ferro Carril Oeste (W)1-0Boca Juniors (W)
Ferro Carril Oeste (W)2-1Boca Juniors (W)
Ferro Carril Oeste (W)1-1Boca Juniors (W)
Boca Juniors (W)2-0Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
Boca Juniors (W)4-1Ferro Carril Oeste (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Boca Juniors (W) 1577 · Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 1517

	Boca Juniors (W)	Draw	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
Our model	62%	22%	16%
Market	61%	24%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Boca Juniors (W) (rating 1577 vs 1517).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Boca Juniors (W)	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.6	2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.6	2.8 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.48

X3.75

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 4.07
2	6.00 → 6.00	Pinn 6.68 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:56 +7’	1.48	3.75	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:46 +6’	1.45	4.07	6.68

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Boca Juniors (W) 2–2–2 Ferro Carril Oeste (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/07/26 Argentina Championship Women	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	3-3 HT 2-2	Boca Juniors (W)
17/09/25 Argentina Championship Women	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Boca Juniors (W)
24/05/25 Argentina Championship Women	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	2-1 HT 0-1	Boca Juniors (W)
04/12/24 Argentina Championship Women	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	Boca Juniors (W)
25/05/24 Argentina Championship Women	Boca Juniors (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
06/12/23 Argentina Championship Women	Boca Juniors (W)	4-1 HT 4-0	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)

Standings · Argentina Championship Women · Primera Division A, Women 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boca Juniors (W)	13	9	2	2	24	9	29
2	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W)	12	8	3	1	22	9	27
3	Banfield (W)	13	8	3	2	20	9	27
4	San Luis FC (W)	13	8	0	5	20	17	24
5	San Lorenzo (W)	12	6	4	2	23	13	22
6	Racing Club (W)	13	6	3	4	27	15	21
7	Belgrano (W)	13	6	2	5	21	14	20
8	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	12	6	2	4	23	17	20
9	River Plate (W)	10	5	2	3	14	9	17
10	Social Atletico Television (W)	13	4	5	4	10	13	17
11	Lanus (W)	13	4	4	5	10	16	16
12	Union Santa Fe (W)	13	3	4	6	16	23	13
13	Gimnasia LP (W)	13	3	1	9	8	21	10
14	Huracan (W)	13	2	3	8	11	21	9
15	CA Independiente Women	13	3	0	10	15	37	9
16	Newell's Old Boys (W)	13	0	2	11	4	25	2

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Boca Juniors (W)	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
Lanus (W)	1-1 D	4-0 W
San Luis FC (W)	2-0 W	2-0 W
Union Santa Fe (W)	3-0 W	1-1 D
CA Independiente Women	2-1 W	2-3 L
Huracan (W)	2-1 W	3-2 W
Belgrano (W)	0-2 L	1-3 L
Banfield (W)	0-0 D	1-2 L
Gimnasia LP (W)	2-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Boca Juniors (W) (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Boca Juniors (W)

WDLWWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/11	Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women	2-0	5-0	7	4	W
07/11	Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
03/10	San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	2-0	8	2	W
30/09	River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
27/09	Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women	2-0	3-0	5	4	W
19/09	CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women	0-1	2-1	8	4	W
12/09	Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women	2-1	2-1	4	4	W
05/09	Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	0-2	9	2	L
22/08	Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
16/08	Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	2-0	1	4	W

Ferro Carril Oeste (W)

LWWLLWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/11	Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women	3-0	4-0	7	4	W
06/11	San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women	2-0	2-0	4	5	W
02/10	Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
25/09	CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women	0-1	2-3	5	6	L
18/09	Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	3-2	8	4	W
11/09	Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	1-3	4	1	L
01/09	Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
24/08	Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
16/08	Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
09/08	Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	2-3	6	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Boca Juniors (W) vs Ferro Carril Oeste (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Boca Juniors (W) win (61%). Probabilities: Boca Juniors (W) 61%, draw 23%, Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 16%.

How many goals are expected in Boca Juniors (W) vs Ferro Carril Oeste (W)?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Boca Juniors (W) 2.14 · Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 1.02), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Boca Juniors (W) vs Ferro Carril Oeste (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.