Football · Argentina Championship Women · 12/11, 19:00

Prediction: Ferro Carril Oeste (W) vs Lanus (W)

Team pages: Ferro Carril Oeste (W) · Lanus (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

Ferro Carril Oeste (W)1.55

Lanus (W)0.95

1X2

50% 28% 22%

Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Draw Lanus (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWWLLWLDW

Lanus (W) 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWDDLDLD

Head-to-head

Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 2–2 Lanus (W) (4 last)

Lanus (W)0-1Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
Ferro Carril Oeste (W)3-0Lanus (W)
Lanus (W)1-0Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
Ferro Carril Oeste (W)1-3Lanus (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 1517 · Lanus (W) 1463

	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	Draw	Lanus (W)
Our model	50%	28%	22%
Market	50%	28%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ferro Carril Oeste (W) (rating 1517 vs 1463).
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	Lanus (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.7	0.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.4	1.5 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.25

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:55 +7’	1.80	3.25	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 2–0–2 Lanus (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/07/26 Argentina Championship Women	Lanus (W)	0-1	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
07/10/23 Argentina Championship Women	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	3-0 HT 1-0	Lanus (W)
27/03/23 Argentina Championship Women	Lanus (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)
08/05/22 Argentina Championship Women	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	1-3 HT 0-1	Lanus (W)

Standings · Argentina Championship Women · Primera Division A, Women 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Boca Juniors (W)	12	8	2	2	19	9	26
2	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W)	11	7	3	1	20	9	24
3	Banfield (W)	12	7	3	2	18	9	24
4	San Luis FC (W)	12	8	0	4	20	15	24
5	San Lorenzo (W)	11	6	4	1	22	9	22
6	Belgrano (W)	12	6	2	4	20	12	20
7	Racing Club (W)	12	5	3	4	22	14	18
8	River Plate (W)	9	5	2	2	14	7	17
9	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	11	5	2	4	19	17	17
10	Social Atletico Television (W)	12	4	5	3	10	8	17
11	Lanus (W)	12	4	4	4	10	12	16
12	Union Santa Fe (W)	12	2	4	6	12	22	10
13	CA Independiente Women	12	3	0	9	14	32	9
14	Huracan (W)	12	2	2	8	11	21	8
15	Gimnasia LP (W)	12	2	1	9	6	20	7
16	Newell's Old Boys (W)	12	0	1	11	4	25	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	Lanus (W)
San Luis FC (W)	2-0 W	0-1 L
Union Santa Fe (W)	1-1 D	0-0 D
CA Independiente Women	2-3 L	2-1 W
Huracan (W)	3-2 W	1-0 W
Belgrano (W)	1-3 L	1-3 L
Banfield (W)	1-2 L	2-3 L
Racing Club (W)	2-3 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Ferro Carril Oeste (W) (2 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ferro Carril Oeste (W)

DLWWLLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/11	San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women	2-0	2-0	4	5	W
02/10	Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
25/09	CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women	0-1	2-3	5	6	L
18/09	Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	3-2	8	4	W
11/09	Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	1-3	4	1	L
01/09	Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
24/08	Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
16/08	Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
09/08	Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	2-3	6	6	L
03/08	San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	2-2	2	7	D

Lanus (W)

LLWWDDLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
31/10	Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-2	1-3	1	2	L
03/10	Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-0	3	0	D
27/09	San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
23/09	River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
19/09	Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
11/09	CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women	1-1	2-1	8	5	W
05/09	Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	1-0	0	6	W
30/08	Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	1-3	2	2	L
16/08	Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women	2-3	2-3	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ferro Carril Oeste (W) vs Lanus (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ferro Carril Oeste (W) win (50%). Probabilities: Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 50%, draw 28%, Lanus (W) 22%.

How many goals are expected in Ferro Carril Oeste (W) vs Lanus (W)?

The model expects 2.5 goals (Ferro Carril Oeste (W) 1.55 · Lanus (W) 0.95), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Ferro Carril Oeste (W) vs Lanus (W)?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.