Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 31/10, 14:00

Prediction: Saldus SS/Leevon vs Valmiera FC

Team pages: Saldus SS/Leevon · Valmiera FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.64Total

Saldus SS/Leevon1.9

Valmiera FC1.74

1X2

41% 24% 35%

Saldus SS/Leevon Draw Valmiera FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Saldus SS/Leevon 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Valmiera FC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Saldus SS/Leevon 0–1 Valmiera FC (1 last)

Valmiera FC4-1Saldus SS/Leevon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Saldus SS/Leevon 1560 · Valmiera FC 1563

	Saldus SS/Leevon	Draw	Valmiera FC
Our model	42%	23%	35%
Market	41%	24%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.64 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Saldus SS/Leevon	Valmiera FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.2	2.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.9 / 0.5	1.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/10/10%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.1 / 7.3	2.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	5.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.80

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 05:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 2.20▼	Bet365 2.20
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.05 → 2.63▲	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 9.9% Pinnacle margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:25 +3’	2.75	3.80	2.05
02:30 +12’	2.40▼	3.80	2.40▲
05:56 +3’	2.20▼	3.80	2.63▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:19 +23’	2.18	3.66	2.59

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Saldus SS/Leevon 0–0–1 Valmiera FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/07/26 Latvia 1. Liga	Valmiera FC	4-1 HT 2-0	Saldus SS/Leevon

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metta/LU	24	20	3	1	98	18	63
2	Valmiera FC	24	17	5	2	66	26	56
3	Saldus SS/Leevon	24	16	5	3	49	29	53
4	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	24	16	5	3	60	31	53
5	JDFS Alberts	24	13	5	6	51	33	44
6	Marupes SC	24	10	3	11	38	40	33
7	Riga FC II	24	9	6	9	39	39	33
8	SK Super Nova II	24	7	8	9	33	36	29
9	Skanstes SK	24	8	2	14	47	51	26
10	FK Smiltene/BJSS	24	6	5	13	37	62	23
11	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	24	5	4	15	31	68	19
12	RFS II	24	5	3	16	37	68	18
13	JFK Ventspils	24	3	7	14	21	48	16
14	Rezeknes FA	24	1	3	20	17	75	6

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Saldus SS/Leevon	Valmiera FC
Metta/LU	0-2 L	2-2 D
JDFS Alberts	2-2 D	2-1 W
JFK Ventspils	4-0 W	3-0 W
RFS II	6-3 W	2-1 W
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	3-0 W	2-2 D
SK Super Nova II	2-1 W	1-1 D
FK Smiltene/BJSS	4-2 W	4-1 W
Marupes SC	1-0 W	4-1 W
Rezeknes FA	2-1 W	6-1 W
Record vs common	7 W 1 D 1 L	6 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Valmiera FC (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Saldus SS/Leevon

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
18/10	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	2-2	8	6	D
10/10	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	4-0	5	3	W
19/09	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	5-0	6-3	–	–	W
13/09	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
06/09	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
29/08	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	2-1	11	3	W
23/08	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	3-2	4-2	14	2	W
08/08	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
01/08	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-1	–	–	W

Valmiera FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
18/10	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
10/10	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	2-4	6	4	L
12/09	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	2-1	2	6	W
05/09	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	2-2	1	10	D
30/08	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	6-1	–	–	W
22/08	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	4-1	7	4	W
08/08	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	3-0	4-1	7	3	W
01/08	RFS II Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	2-1	1	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Saldus SS/Leevon vs Valmiera FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Saldus SS/Leevon win (41%). Probabilities: Saldus SS/Leevon 41%, draw 24%, Valmiera FC 35%.

How many goals are expected in Saldus SS/Leevon vs Valmiera FC?

The model expects 3.64 goals (Saldus SS/Leevon 1.9 · Valmiera FC 1.74), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Saldus SS/Leevon vs Valmiera FC?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.