Football · Latvia 1. Liga · 07/11, 12:00

Prediction: RFS II vs FK Tukums 2000/TSS II

Team pages: RFS II · FK Tukums 2000/TSS II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.17Total

RFS II2.51

FK Tukums 2000/TSS II1.66

1X2

55% 21% 24%

RFS II Draw FK Tukums 2000/TSS II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

RFS II 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

RFS II 3–1–2 FK Tukums 2000/TSS II (6 last)

FK Tukums 2000/TSS II2-0RFS II
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II2-2RFS II
RFS II4-1FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
FK Tukums 2000/TSS II1-2RFS II
RFS II6-0FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
RFS II0-1FK Tukums 2000/TSS II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · RFS II 1454 · FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 1453

	RFS II	Draw	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
Our model	56%	20%	24%
Market	54%	22%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 4.17 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 83%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours RFS II: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	RFS II	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 3.7	1.3 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 2.3	0.9 / 1.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.9	2.3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.65

X4.00

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 1.4 · xG: 4.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:35 +16’	1.65	4.00	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · RFS II 3–1–2 FK Tukums 2000/TSS II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/07/26 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	2-0 HT 0-0	RFS II
20/10/25 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	2-2 HT 0-1	RFS II
15/06/25 Latvia 1. Liga	RFS II	4-1 HT 0-0	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
02/11/24 Latvia 1. Liga	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	1-2 HT 1-1	RFS II
21/07/24 Latvia 1. Liga	RFS II	6-0 HT 4-0	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
11/08/23 Latvia 1. Liga	RFS II	0-1 HT 0-0	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II

Standings · Latvia 1. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Metta/LU	25	21	3	1	100	19	66
2	Valmiera FC	25	17	6	2	66	26	57
3	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	25	17	5	3	63	32	56
4	Saldus SS/Leevon	25	16	6	3	49	29	54
5	JDFS Alberts	25	13	5	7	52	36	44
6	Marupes SC	25	10	4	11	39	41	34
7	Riga FC II	25	9	7	9	40	40	34
8	SK Super Nova II	25	7	8	10	35	40	29
9	Skanstes SK	25	8	2	15	48	53	26
10	FK Smiltene/BJSS	25	6	6	13	38	63	24
11	RFS II	25	6	3	16	41	70	21
12	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II	25	5	5	15	32	69	20
13	JFK Ventspils	25	4	7	14	29	48	19
14	Rezeknes FA	25	1	3	21	17	83	6

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	RFS II	FK Tukums 2000/TSS II
SK Super Nova II	4-2 W	0-3 L
Riga FC II	0-3 L	1-1 D
Rezeknes FA	1-0 W	3-1 W
Marupes SC	2-3 L	0-5 L
Saldus SS/Leevon	3-6 L	0-3 L
Skanstes SK	3-4 L	2-6 L
JFK Ventspils	4-1 W	1-0 W
FK Beitar Riga/Mariners	1-3 L	2-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 5 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: RFS II (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

RFS II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	3-1	4-2	10	6	W
25/10	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	0-3	4	6	L
18/10	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
10/10	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	2-1	2-3	7	2	L
19/09	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	0-5	3-6	–	–	L
14/09	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	3-4	4	6	L
05/09	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	4-1	7	4	W
29/08	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	0-1	1-3	5	0	L
22/08	JDFS Alberts Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-3	2	4	L
08/08	Metta/LU Latvia 1. Liga	1-9	1-12	0	8	L

FK Tukums 2000/TSS II

LLLLWWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Riga FC II Latvia 1. Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
22/10	SK Super Nova II Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
18/10	Valmiera FC Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
11/10	FK Smiltene/BJSS Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	2-3	6	6	L
26/09	JFK Ventspils Latvia 1. Liga	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
19/09	Rezeknes FA Latvia 1. Liga	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
12/09	Marupes SC Latvia 1. Liga	0-5	0-5	–	–	L
06/09	Saldus SS/Leevon Latvia 1. Liga	0-2	0-3	5	3	L
30/08	Skanstes SK Latvia 1. Liga	2-5	2-6	4	2	L
09/08	FK Beitar Riga/Mariners Latvia 1. Liga	1-2	2-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in RFS II vs FK Tukums 2000/TSS II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a RFS II win (55%). Probabilities: RFS II 55%, draw 21%, FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 24%.

How many goals are expected in RFS II vs FK Tukums 2000/TSS II?

The model expects 4.17 goals (RFS II 2.51 · FK Tukums 2000/TSS II 1.66), with a 55% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in RFS II vs FK Tukums 2000/TSS II?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.