Football · Kenya Premier League · 08/11, 13:00

Prediction: Mathare United vs Posta Rangers

Team pages: Mathare United · Posta Rangers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.05Total

Mathare United1.18

Posta Rangers0.87

1X2

42% 32% 26%

Mathare United Draw Posta Rangers

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Mathare United 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLWDLDWL

Posta Rangers 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWDWLLLWDL

Head-to-head

Mathare United 2–2–2 Posta Rangers (6 last)

Posta Rangers1-1Mathare United
Mathare United1-2Posta Rangers
Mathare United3-2Posta Rangers
Posta Rangers0-2Mathare United
Mathare United0-2Posta Rangers
Posta Rangers1-1Mathare United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mathare United 1491 · Posta Rangers 1480

	Mathare United	Draw	Posta Rangers
Our model	42%	33%	26%
Market	43%	31%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mathare United	Posta Rangers
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1	1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/56/11%	33/56/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 3.9	1 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0.1	2.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X2.88

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 22.05

Under 21.75

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
05:05 +4’	2.10	2.88	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mathare United 2–2–2 Posta Rangers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 Kenya Premier League	Posta Rangers	1-1 HT 1-0	Mathare United
22/09/25 Kenya Premier League	Mathare United	1-2 HT 1-0	Posta Rangers
05/04/25 Kenya Premier League	Mathare United	3-2 HT 1-1	Posta Rangers
23/11/24 Kenya Premier League	Posta Rangers	0-2 HT 0-1	Mathare United
22/04/23 Kenya Premier League	Mathare United	0-2	Posta Rangers
11/01/23 Kenya Premier League	Posta Rangers	1-1 HT 1-0	Mathare United

Standings · Kenya Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	KCB	6	4	1	1	9	5	13
2	Gor Mahia	5	4	0	1	8	4	12
3	AFC Leopards	6	2	4	0	4	1	10
4	Shabana FC	6	2	3	1	5	4	9
5	Mara Sugar FC	6	2	3	1	7	7	9
6	3K FC	6	2	3	1	7	8	9
7	Administration Police FC	5	2	2	1	4	3	8
8	Muranga Seal	5	2	1	2	11	9	7
9	Tusker	3	2	0	1	6	3	6
10	Migori Youth	5	1	3	1	5	4	6
11	APS Bomet	6	1	3	2	4	3	6
12	Mathare United	5	1	2	2	3	4	5
13	Ulinzi Stars	5	1	2	2	3	5	5
14	Nairobi United	5	0	4	1	6	7	4
15	Bandari FC	5	0	4	1	2	3	4
16	Kakamega Homeboyz	4	1	1	2	2	4	4
17	Posta Rangers	5	1	1	3	3	8	4
18	Mombasa United	6	0	1	5	4	11	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mathare United	Posta Rangers
Ulinzi Stars	1-2 L	0-1 L
KCB	0-1 L	1-0 W
Bandari FC	1-0 W	0-0 D
Sofapaka FC	2-2 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Posta Rangers (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mathare United

DLWLWDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Ulinzi Stars Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-2	2	1	L
29/10	Tusker Kenya Premier League	2-0	2-1	2	5	W
24/10	Migori Youth Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
17/10	KCB Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
10/10	APS Bomet Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
31/05	Bandari FC Kenya Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
23/05	Ulinzi Stars Kenya Premier League	0-0	1-2	4	0	L
16/05	Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
10/05	APS Bomet Kenya Premier League	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
02/05	Sofapaka FC Kenya Premier League	1-1	2-2	7	1	D

Posta Rangers

DWDWLLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	3K FC Kenya Premier League	0-0	1-2	1	2	L
28/10	Bandari FC Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
23/10	KCB Kenya Premier League	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
18/10	Muranga Seal Kenya Premier League	0-3	1-5	3	4	L
10/10	Shabana FC Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
31/05	Ulinzi Stars Kenya Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
23/05	KCB Kenya Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
16/05	Nairobi United Kenya Premier League	2-1	2-2	2	5	D
11/05	Sofapaka FC Kenya Premier League	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
06/05	Bandari FC Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mathare United vs Posta Rangers?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mathare United win (42%). Probabilities: Mathare United 42%, draw 32%, Posta Rangers 26%.

How many goals are expected in Mathare United vs Posta Rangers?

The model expects 2.05 goals (Mathare United 1.18 · Posta Rangers 0.87), with a 54% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Mathare United vs Posta Rangers?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.