Football · Kenya Premier League · 15/11, 13:00

Prediction: Muranga Seal vs Mathare United

Team pages: Muranga Seal · Mathare United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Muranga Seal1.36

Mathare United1.04

1X2

43% 30% 28%

Muranga Seal Draw Mathare United

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Muranga Seal 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWLWDD

Mathare United 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWDLDWLL

Head-to-head

Muranga Seal 2–2–0 Mathare United (4 last)

Muranga Seal1-1Mathare United
Mathare United0-2Muranga Seal
Muranga Seal1-1Mathare United
Mathare United0-2Muranga Seal

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Muranga Seal 1530 · Mathare United 1466

	Muranga Seal	Draw	Mathare United
Our model	43%	30%	28%
Market	43%	30%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Muranga Seal (rating 1530 vs 1466).
H2H favours Muranga Seal: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Muranga Seal	Mathare United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.5	0.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/38/25%	33/44/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4	2.3 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	2.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.00

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
10:15 +3’	2.10	3.00	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Muranga Seal 2–2–0 Mathare United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Kenya Premier League	Muranga Seal	1-1 HT 0-0	Mathare United
10/01/26 Kenya Premier League	Mathare United	0-2 HT 0-1	Muranga Seal
02/03/25 Kenya Premier League	Muranga Seal	1-1 HT 0-1	Mathare United
10/12/24 Kenya Premier League	Mathare United	0-2 HT 0-1	Muranga Seal

Standings · Kenya Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gor Mahia	6	4	1	1	9	5	13
1	KCB	6	4	1	1	9	5	13
3	AFC Leopards	6	2	4	0	4	1	10
4	Administration Police FC	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
5	Shabana FC	6	2	3	1	5	4	9
6	Mara Sugar FC	6	2	3	1	7	7	9
7	3K FC	6	2	3	1	7	8	9
8	Muranga Seal	6	2	2	2	13	11	8
9	Bandari FC	6	1	4	1	3	3	7
10	Posta Rangers	6	2	1	3	5	9	7
11	Tusker	4	2	0	2	6	4	6
12	Migori Youth	5	1	3	1	5	4	6
13	APS Bomet	6	1	3	2	4	3	6
14	Ulinzi Stars	6	1	3	2	5	7	6
15	Nairobi United	6	0	5	1	7	8	5
16	Kakamega Homeboyz	5	1	2	2	4	6	5
16	Mathare United	6	1	2	3	4	6	5
18	Mombasa United	6	0	1	5	4	11	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Muranga Seal	Mathare United
Ulinzi Stars	2-2 D	1-2 L
APS Bomet	0-0 D	0-0 D
Posta Rangers	5-1 W	1-2 L
Mara Sugar FC	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Muranga Seal (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Muranga Seal

WLWWLWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Ulinzi Stars Kenya Premier League	0-0	2-2	6	5	D
01/11	APS Bomet Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
28/10	Nairobi United Kenya Premier League	3-1	3-2	7	4	W
25/10	3K FC Kenya Premier League	1-2	1-2	4	4	L
18/10	Posta Rangers Kenya Premier League	3-0	5-1	2	4	W
13/10	Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League	0-1	2-4	6	7	L
31/05	Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
24/05	Bidco United Kenya Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
17/05	Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League	1-1	1-3	1	2	L
10/05	Kakamega Homeboyz Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	1	W

Mathare United

LWLWDLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Posta Rangers Kenya Premier League	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
02/11	Ulinzi Stars Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-2	2	1	L
29/10	Tusker Kenya Premier League	2-0	2-1	2	5	W
24/10	Migori Youth Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-0	1	1	D
17/10	KCB Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
10/10	APS Bomet Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
31/05	Bandari FC Kenya Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
23/05	Ulinzi Stars Kenya Premier League	0-0	1-2	4	0	L
16/05	Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
10/05	APS Bomet Kenya Premier League	0-1	0-2	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Muranga Seal vs Mathare United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Muranga Seal win (43%). Probabilities: Muranga Seal 43%, draw 30%, Mathare United 28%.

How many goals are expected in Muranga Seal vs Mathare United?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Muranga Seal 1.36 · Mathare United 1.04), with a 56% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Muranga Seal vs Mathare United?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.