Prediction: Gor Mahia vs Nairobi United
Team pages: Gor Mahia · Nairobi United
- Gor Mahia0-1Nairobi United
- Gor Mahia1-2Nairobi United
| Gor Mahia | Draw | Nairobi United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 28% | 17% |
| Market | 55% | 28% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Nairobi United: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gor Mahia | Nairobi United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.7 | 1 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 11/56/33% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.2 | 2.6 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.1 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gor Mahia 0–0–2 Nairobi United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/26 Kenya Premier League | Gor Mahia | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Nairobi United |
| 29/06/25 Kenya Cup | Gor Mahia | 1-2 | Nairobi United |
Standings · Kenya Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KCB | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Gor Mahia | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 12 |
| 3 | AFC Leopards | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Shabana FC | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Mara Sugar FC | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 9 |
| 6 | 3K FC | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| 7 | Administration Police FC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Muranga Seal | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 7 |
| 9 | Tusker | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 10 | Migori Youth | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 11 | APS Bomet | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Mathare United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| 13 | Ulinzi Stars | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| 14 | Nairobi United | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
| 15 | Bandari FC | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Kakamega Homeboyz | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 17 | Posta Rangers | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 4 |
| 18 | Mombasa United | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gor Mahia | Nairobi United |
|---|---|---|
| KCB | 1-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Bandari FC | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| APS Bomet | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Muranga Seal | 4-2 W | 2-3 L |
| Administration Police FC | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 4 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Gor Mahia (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gor Mahia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | KCB Kenya Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 28/10 | Kakamega Homeboyz Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 24/10 | Bandari FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 17/10 | APS Bomet Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 13/10 | Muranga Seal Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 31/05 | Nairobi United Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 27/05 | Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 17/05 | Muranga Seal Kenya Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 14 | 4 | D |
| 03/05 | Kakamega Homeboyz Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
Nairobi United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Bandari FC Kenya Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 28/10 | Muranga Seal Kenya Premier League |
1-3 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 25/10 | APS Bomet Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 18/10 | Shabana FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 11/10 | KCB Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 31/05 | Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | Posta Rangers Kenya Premier League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 10/05 | Kariobangi Sharks Kenya Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 06/05 | Tusker Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gor Mahia vs Nairobi United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Gor Mahia win (55%). Probabilities: Gor Mahia 55%, draw 28%, Nairobi United 17%.
How many goals are expected in Gor Mahia vs Nairobi United?
The model expects 2.27 goals (Gor Mahia 1.53 · Nairobi United 0.74), with a 54% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Gor Mahia vs Nairobi United?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.