Football · Kenya Premier League · 08/11, 13:00
Prediction: Muranga Seal vs Ulinzi Stars
Team pages: Muranga Seal · Ulinzi Stars
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.46Total
Muranga Seal1.3
Ulinzi Stars1.17
1X2
Muranga Seal
Draw
Ulinzi Stars
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Muranga Seal
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Ulinzi Stars
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Muranga Seal
3–1–2
Ulinzi Stars
(6 last)
- Ulinzi Stars1-2Muranga Seal
- Muranga Seal0-1Ulinzi Stars
- Muranga Seal3-2Ulinzi Stars
- Muranga Seal1-2Ulinzi Stars
- Ulinzi Stars0-1Muranga Seal
- Ulinzi Stars1-1Muranga Seal
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Muranga Seal 1525 · Ulinzi Stars 1496
| Muranga Seal | Draw | Ulinzi Stars | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 30% | 32% |
| Market | 37% | 31% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Muranga Seal: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Muranga Seal | Ulinzi Stars | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.5 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.8 | 0.1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 38/38/25% | 11/56/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 3.5 | 1.9 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Muranga Seal 3–1–2 Ulinzi Stars
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/26 Kenya Premier League | Ulinzi Stars | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Muranga Seal |
| 21/09/25 Kenya Premier League | Muranga Seal | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Ulinzi Stars |
| 01/05/25 Kenya Cup | Muranga Seal | 3-2 HT 0-1 | Ulinzi Stars |
| 15/02/25 Kenya Premier League | Muranga Seal | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Ulinzi Stars |
| 25/08/24 Kenya Premier League | Ulinzi Stars | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Muranga Seal |
| 20/05/24 Kenya Premier League | Ulinzi Stars | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Muranga Seal |
Standings · Kenya Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KCB | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Gor Mahia | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 12 |
| 3 | AFC Leopards | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 4 | Shabana FC | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Mara Sugar FC | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 9 |
| 6 | 3K FC | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| 7 | Administration Police FC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Muranga Seal | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 7 |
| 9 | Tusker | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 10 | Migori Youth | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 11 | APS Bomet | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Mathare United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| 13 | Ulinzi Stars | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
| 14 | Nairobi United | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
| 15 | Bandari FC | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Kakamega Homeboyz | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 17 | Posta Rangers | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 4 |
| 18 | Mombasa United | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Muranga Seal | Ulinzi Stars |
|---|---|---|
| Posta Rangers | 5-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Mara Sugar FC | 2-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Kakamega Homeboyz | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Administration Police FC | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Muranga Seal (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Muranga Seal
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | APS Bomet Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 28/10 | Nairobi United Kenya Premier League |
3-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 25/10 | 3K FC Kenya Premier League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 18/10 | Posta Rangers Kenya Premier League |
3-0 | 5-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 13/10 | Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 2-4 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 31/05 | Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 24/05 | Bidco United Kenya Premier League |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | Kakamega Homeboyz Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 06/05 | Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
Ulinzi Stars
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | Mathare United Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 29/10 | Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 24/10 | Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 18/10 | Kakamega Homeboyz Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 11/10 | Tusker Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 31/05 | Posta Rangers Kenya Premier League |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 27/05 | Tusker Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 23/05 | Mathare United Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 13/05 | AFC Leopards Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Shabana FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Muranga Seal vs Ulinzi Stars?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Muranga Seal win (38%). Probabilities: Muranga Seal 38%, draw 31%, Ulinzi Stars 32%.
How many goals are expected in Muranga Seal vs Ulinzi Stars?
The model expects 2.46 goals (Muranga Seal 1.3 · Ulinzi Stars 1.17), with a 56% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Muranga Seal vs Ulinzi Stars?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.