Football · Kenya Premier League · 01/11, 14:15
Prediction: Gor Mahia vs KCB
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.22Total
Gor Mahia1.4
KCB0.82
1X2
Gor Mahia
Draw
KCB
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 62%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Gor Mahia
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
KCB
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gor Mahia
3–3–0
KCB
(6 last)
- Gor Mahia3-0KCB
- KCB0-1Gor Mahia
- KCB0-1Gor Mahia
- Gor Mahia0-0KCB
- KCB0-0Gor Mahia
- Gor Mahia1-1KCB
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gor Mahia 1540 · KCB 1503
| Gor Mahia | Draw | KCB | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 30% | 21% |
| Market | 50% | 29% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.22 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Gor Mahia: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gor Mahia | KCB | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.5 | 1.3 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 11/67/22% | 33/44/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.1 | 1.8 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 2.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gor Mahia 3–3–0 KCB
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/26 Kenya Premier League | Gor Mahia | 3-0 HT 3-0 | KCB |
| 05/10/25 Kenya Premier League | KCB | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Gor Mahia |
| 07/04/25 Kenya Premier League | KCB | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Gor Mahia |
| 23/10/24 Kenya Premier League | Gor Mahia | 0-0 HT 0-0 | KCB |
| 16/05/24 Kenya Premier League | KCB | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Gor Mahia |
| 01/10/23 Kenya Premier League | Gor Mahia | 1-1 HT 0-1 | KCB |
Standings · Kenya Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gor Mahia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 12 |
| 2 | KCB | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Muranga Seal | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 6 |
| 4 | Mara Sugar FC | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | AFC Leopards | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Shabana FC | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | APS Bomet | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| 8 | Administration Police FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| 9 | Mathare United | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | 3K FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| 11 | Kakamega Homeboyz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Posta Rangers | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| 13 | Tusker | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Migori Youth | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Nairobi United | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 16 | Bandari FC | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 17 | Ulinzi Stars | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| 18 | Mombasa United | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gor Mahia | KCB |
|---|---|---|
| Kakamega Homeboyz | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Bandari FC | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| APS Bomet | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Nairobi United | 0-1 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Gor Mahia (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gor Mahia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Kakamega Homeboyz Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 24/10 | Bandari FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 17/10 | APS Bomet Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 13/10 | Muranga Seal Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 31/05 | Nairobi United Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 27/05 | Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 17/05 | Muranga Seal Kenya Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 14 | 4 | D |
| 03/05 | Kakamega Homeboyz Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | AFC Leopards Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
KCB
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Mombasa United Kenya Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 23/10 | Posta Rangers Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 17/10 | Mathare United Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 11/10 | Nairobi United Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 31/05 | Shabana FC Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 27/05 | Sofapaka FC Kenya Premier League |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Posta Rangers Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | Bandari FC Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 06/05 | APS Bomet Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 26/04 | Kakamega Homeboyz Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gor Mahia vs KCB?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Gor Mahia win (50%). Probabilities: Gor Mahia 50%, draw 29%, KCB 21%.
How many goals are expected in Gor Mahia vs KCB?
The model expects 2.22 goals (Gor Mahia 1.4 · KCB 0.82), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Gor Mahia vs KCB?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.