Prediction: Tusker vs Mara Sugar FC
Team pages: Tusker · Mara Sugar FC
- Tusker0-1Mara Sugar FC
- Mara Sugar FC0-1Tusker
- Mara Sugar FC1-1Tusker
- Tusker2-1Mara Sugar FC
| Tusker | Draw | Mara Sugar FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 37% | 27% |
| Market | 38% | 33% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Tusker: 2-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tusker | Mara Sugar FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 13/50/38% | 25/63/13% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.1 | 3.3 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.1 | 2.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tusker 2–1–1 Mara Sugar FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/26 Kenya Premier League | Tusker | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Mara Sugar FC |
| 29/11/25 Kenya Premier League | Mara Sugar FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Tusker |
| 06/04/25 Kenya Premier League | Mara Sugar FC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Tusker |
| 27/11/24 Kenya Premier League | Tusker | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Mara Sugar FC |
Standings · Kenya Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gor Mahia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 12 |
| 2 | KCB | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Muranga Seal | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 6 |
| 4 | Mara Sugar FC | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | AFC Leopards | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Shabana FC | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | APS Bomet | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| 8 | Administration Police FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| 9 | Mathare United | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | 3K FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| 11 | Kakamega Homeboyz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Posta Rangers | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| 13 | Tusker | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Migori Youth | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Nairobi United | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 16 | Bandari FC | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 17 | Ulinzi Stars | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| 18 | Mombasa United | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tusker | Mara Sugar FC |
|---|---|---|
| Mathare United | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Ulinzi Stars | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Gor Mahia | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Tusker (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tusker
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10 | Mathare United Kenya Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 11/10 | Ulinzi Stars Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 31/05 | APS Bomet Kenya Premier League |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 27/05 | Ulinzi Stars Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Bandari FC Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Bidco United Kenya Premier League |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 06/05 | Nairobi United Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Sofapaka FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 14/04 | Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
Mara Sugar FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | AFC Leopards Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 24/10 | Ulinzi Stars Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 19/10 | Mombasa United Kenya Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 11/10 | 3K FC Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 31/05 | Muranga Seal Kenya Premier League |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 27/05 | Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 16/05 | Mathare United Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 13/05 | Shabana FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | AFC Leopards Kenya Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 24/04 | Tusker Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tusker vs Mara Sugar FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tusker win (37%). Probabilities: Tusker 37%, draw 35%, Mara Sugar FC 28%.
How many goals are expected in Tusker vs Mara Sugar FC?
The model expects 1.66 goals (Tusker 0.91 · Mara Sugar FC 0.75), with a 53% chance of under 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Tusker vs Mara Sugar FC?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.