Football · Kenya Premier League · 01/11, 13:00

Prediction: APS Bomet vs Muranga Seal

Team pages: APS Bomet · Muranga Seal

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

APS Bomet1.38

Muranga Seal1.13

1X2

41% 30% 29%

APS Bomet Draw Muranga Seal

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

APS Bomet 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDDLDW

Muranga Seal 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWLWLW

Head-to-head

APS Bomet 0–2–3 Muranga Seal (5 last)

Muranga Seal2-1APS Bomet
APS Bomet0-2Muranga Seal
APS Bomet1-1Muranga Seal
APS Bomet1-1Muranga Seal
Muranga Seal1-0APS Bomet

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · APS Bomet 1550 · Muranga Seal 1516

	APS Bomet	Draw	Muranga Seal
Our model	41%	29%	29%
Market	41%	30%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Muranga Seal: 3-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	APS Bomet	Muranga Seal
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.4	1.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0	1.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/56/0%	38/25/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 2.6	2.6 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.00

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
02:14 +73’	2.20	3.00	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · APS Bomet 0–2–3 Muranga Seal

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/26 Kenya Premier League	Muranga Seal	2-1 HT 1-1	APS Bomet
28/09/25 Kenya Premier League	APS Bomet	0-2 HT 0-1	Muranga Seal
24/07/22 Kenya Super League	APS Bomet	1-1 HT 1-0	Muranga Seal
23/08/21 Kenya Super League	APS Bomet	1-1 HT 1-0	Muranga Seal
15/03/20 Kenya Super League	Muranga Seal	1-0	APS Bomet

Standings · Kenya Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gor Mahia	4	4	0	0	7	2	12
2	KCB	4	2	1	1	6	4	7
3	Muranga Seal	4	2	0	2	11	9	6
4	Mara Sugar FC	4	1	3	0	4	3	6
5	AFC Leopards	4	1	3	0	2	1	6
5	Shabana FC	4	1	3	0	2	1	6
7	APS Bomet	4	1	2	1	4	2	5
8	Administration Police FC	4	1	2	1	3	3	5
9	Mathare United	4	1	2	1	2	2	5
10	3K FC	4	1	2	1	5	7	5
11	Kakamega Homeboyz	3	1	1	1	2	2	4
12	Posta Rangers	4	1	1	2	2	6	4
13	Tusker	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
14	Migori Youth	3	0	3	0	2	2	3
15	Nairobi United	4	0	3	1	5	6	3
16	Bandari FC	4	0	3	1	1	2	3
17	Ulinzi Stars	4	0	2	2	1	4	2
18	Mombasa United	4	0	1	3	2	6	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	APS Bomet	Muranga Seal
3K FC	3-0 W	1-2 L
Nairobi United	1-1 D	3-2 W
Gor Mahia	0-1 L	2-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: APS Bomet (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

APS Bomet

WWWWWDDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	3K FC Kenya Premier League	2-0	3-0	1	2	W
25/10	Nairobi United Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
17/10	Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
10/10	Mathare United Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
31/05	Tusker Kenya Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
24/05	AFC Leopards Kenya Premier League	0-0	2-1	2	2	W
20/05	Bandari FC Kenya Premier League	0-0	2-0	1	2	W
10/05	Mathare United Kenya Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
06/05	KCB Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-0	1	1	W
26/04	Sofapaka FC Kenya Premier League	0-0	1-0	10	1	W

Muranga Seal

LLWLWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	Nairobi United Kenya Premier League	3-1	3-2	7	4	W
25/10	3K FC Kenya Premier League	1-2	1-2	4	4	L
18/10	Posta Rangers Kenya Premier League	3-0	5-1	2	4	W
13/10	Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League	0-1	2-4	6	7	L
31/05	Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
24/05	Bidco United Kenya Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
17/05	Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League	1-1	1-3	1	2	L
10/05	Kakamega Homeboyz Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
06/05	Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League	1-1	1-2	2	5	L
25/04	Kariobangi Sharks Kenya Premier League	0-1	0-1	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in APS Bomet vs Muranga Seal?

According to our model, the most likely result is a APS Bomet win (41%). Probabilities: APS Bomet 41%, draw 30%, Muranga Seal 29%.

How many goals are expected in APS Bomet vs Muranga Seal?

The model expects 2.5 goals (APS Bomet 1.38 · Muranga Seal 1.13), with a 57% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in APS Bomet vs Muranga Seal?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.