Football · Kenya Premier League · 01/11, 13:00

Prediction: Nairobi United vs Bandari FC

Team pages: Nairobi United · Bandari FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.02Total

Nairobi United1.14

Bandari FC0.88

1X2

41% 32% 27%

Nairobi United Draw Bandari FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Nairobi United 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WWLDDWDDDL

Bandari FC 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LDDLWLDDLD

Head-to-head

Nairobi United 1–1–0 Bandari FC (2 last)

Bandari FC1-1Nairobi United
Nairobi United3-1Bandari FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nairobi United 1509 · Bandari FC 1488

	Nairobi United	Draw	Bandari FC
Our model	40%	33%	27%
Market	41%	31%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.02 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nairobi United	Bandari FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	0.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	22/44/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.1	2.6 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	2.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.20

X2.88

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 22.05

Under 21.75

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 1.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
02:38 +49’	2.20	2.88	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nairobi United 1–1–0 Bandari FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/02/26 Kenya Premier League	Bandari FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Nairobi United
04/11/25 Kenya Premier League	Nairobi United	3-1 HT 1-1	Bandari FC

Standings · Kenya Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gor Mahia	4	4	0	0	7	2	12
2	KCB	4	2	1	1	6	4	7
3	Muranga Seal	4	2	0	2	11	9	6
4	Mara Sugar FC	4	1	3	0	4	3	6
5	AFC Leopards	4	1	3	0	2	1	6
5	Shabana FC	4	1	3	0	2	1	6
7	APS Bomet	4	1	2	1	4	2	5
8	Administration Police FC	4	1	2	1	3	3	5
9	Mathare United	4	1	2	1	2	2	5
10	3K FC	4	1	2	1	5	7	5
11	Kakamega Homeboyz	3	1	1	1	2	2	4
12	Posta Rangers	4	1	1	2	2	6	4
13	Tusker	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
14	Migori Youth	3	0	3	0	2	2	3
15	Nairobi United	4	0	3	1	5	6	3
16	Bandari FC	4	0	3	1	1	2	3
17	Ulinzi Stars	4	0	2	2	1	4	2
18	Mombasa United	4	0	1	3	2	6	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nairobi United	Bandari FC
APS Bomet	1-1 D	0-2 L
KCB	2-2 D	2-2 D
Gor Mahia	1-0 W	0-1 L
Posta Rangers	2-2 D	0-0 D
Tusker	1-0 W	1-0 W
Mathare United	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Nairobi United (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nairobi United

WWLDDWDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	Muranga Seal Kenya Premier League	1-3	2-3	5	4	L
25/10	APS Bomet Kenya Premier League	0-1	1-1	11	4	D
18/10	Shabana FC Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
11/10	KCB Kenya Premier League	1-0	2-2	4	1	D
31/05	Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
24/05	Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
16/05	Posta Rangers Kenya Premier League	1-2	2-2	2	5	D
10/05	Kariobangi Sharks Kenya Premier League	0-2	0-2	6	2	L
06/05	Tusker Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
25/04	Mathare United Kenya Premier League	2-0	2-1	4	5	W

Bandari FC

LDDLWLDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	Posta Rangers Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
24/10	Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
19/10	3K FC Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-1	5	1	D
14/10	AFC Leopards Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	1	D
31/05	Mathare United Kenya Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
24/05	Tusker Kenya Premier League	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
20/05	APS Bomet Kenya Premier League	0-0	0-2	8	2	L
10/05	KCB Kenya Premier League	0-1	2-2	4	4	D
06/05	Posta Rangers Kenya Premier League	0-1	1-1	5	1	D
25/04	Ulinzi Stars Kenya Premier League	0-1	1-2	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nairobi United vs Bandari FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nairobi United win (41%). Probabilities: Nairobi United 41%, draw 32%, Bandari FC 27%.

How many goals are expected in Nairobi United vs Bandari FC?

The model expects 2.02 goals (Nairobi United 1.14 · Bandari FC 0.88), with a 54% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Nairobi United vs Bandari FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.