Football · Kenya Premier League · 01/11, 12:00
Prediction: AFC Leopards vs Kakamega Homeboyz
Team pages: AFC Leopards · Kakamega Homeboyz
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.83Total
AFC Leopards1.01
Kakamega Homeboyz0.81
1X2
AFC Leopards
Draw
Kakamega Homeboyz
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
0-0 17%
Recent form · 10 last
AFC Leopards
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Kakamega Homeboyz
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
AFC Leopards
2–2–2
Kakamega Homeboyz
(6 last)
- Kakamega Homeboyz1-2AFC Leopards
- AFC Leopards0-1Kakamega Homeboyz
- AFC Leopards1-2Kakamega Homeboyz
- Kakamega Homeboyz1-1AFC Leopards
- Kakamega Homeboyz0-0AFC Leopards
- AFC Leopards2-0Kakamega Homeboyz
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · AFC Leopards 1510 · Kakamega Homeboyz 1474
| AFC Leopards | Draw | Kakamega Homeboyz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 35% | 27% |
| Market | 39% | 33% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.83 goals · Bet365 line 1.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 11 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| AFC Leopards | Kakamega Homeboyz | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.1 | 0 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/80/0% | 0/38/63% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 5.4 | 3 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0 | 2.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · AFC Leopards 2–2–2 Kakamega Homeboyz
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 Kenya Premier League | Kakamega Homeboyz | 1-2 HT 0-2 | AFC Leopards |
| 04/01/26 Kenya Premier League | AFC Leopards | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Kakamega Homeboyz |
| 05/04/25 Kenya Premier League | AFC Leopards | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Kakamega Homeboyz |
| 07/12/24 Kenya Premier League | Kakamega Homeboyz | 1-1 HT 0-1 | AFC Leopards |
| 18/02/24 Kenya Premier League | Kakamega Homeboyz | 0-0 HT 0-0 | AFC Leopards |
| 17/12/23 Kenya Premier League | AFC Leopards | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Kakamega Homeboyz |
Standings · Kenya Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gor Mahia | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 12 |
| 2 | KCB | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Muranga Seal | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 6 |
| 4 | Mara Sugar FC | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 5 | AFC Leopards | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Shabana FC | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | APS Bomet | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 5 |
| 8 | Administration Police FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| 9 | Mathare United | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | 3K FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| 11 | Kakamega Homeboyz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Posta Rangers | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 |
| 13 | Tusker | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Migori Youth | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Nairobi United | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 16 | Bandari FC | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 17 | Ulinzi Stars | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| 18 | Mombasa United | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | AFC Leopards | Kakamega Homeboyz |
|---|---|---|
| Shabana FC | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Administration Police FC | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Ulinzi Stars | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Gor Mahia | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: AFC Leopards (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
AFC Leopards
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 25/10 | Shabana FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 20/10 | Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 14/10 | Bandari FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 1 | D |
| 31/05 | Bidco United Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | APS Bomet Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Kakamega Homeboyz Kenya Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 13/05 | Ulinzi Stars Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 26/04 | Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
Kakamega Homeboyz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 18/10 | Ulinzi Stars Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 14/10 | Mombasa United Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 23/05 | Kariobangi Sharks Kenya Premier League |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 16/05 | AFC Leopards Kenya Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Muranga Seal Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | KCB Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 18/04 | Shabana FC Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in AFC Leopards vs Kakamega Homeboyz?
According to our model, the most likely result is a AFC Leopards win (39%). Probabilities: AFC Leopards 39%, draw 34%, Kakamega Homeboyz 28%.
How many goals are expected in AFC Leopards vs Kakamega Homeboyz?
The model expects 1.83 goals (AFC Leopards 1.01 · Kakamega Homeboyz 0.81), with a 50% chance of over 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in AFC Leopards vs Kakamega Homeboyz?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.