Football · Poland I Liga · 07/11, 15:30

Prediction: Termalica BB Nieciecza vs Chrobry Glogow

Team pages: Termalica BB Nieciecza · Chrobry Glogow

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

Termalica BB Nieciecza1.63

Chrobry Glogow1.07

1X2

49% 27% 24%

Termalica BB Nieciecza Draw Chrobry Glogow

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Termalica BB Nieciecza 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLDWWWDWLD

Chrobry Glogow 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWDDLLLD

Head-to-head

Termalica BB Nieciecza 5–1–0 Chrobry Glogow (6 last)

Termalica BB Nieciecza3-2Chrobry Glogow
Chrobry Glogow0-4Termalica BB Nieciecza
Termalica BB Nieciecza1-1Chrobry Glogow
Chrobry Glogow0-5Termalica BB Nieciecza
Chrobry Glogow0-2Termalica BB Nieciecza
Termalica BB Nieciecza3-1Chrobry Glogow

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Termalica BB Nieciecza 1544 · Chrobry Glogow 1483

	Termalica BB Nieciecza	Draw	Chrobry Glogow
Our model	49%	27%	24%
Market	50%	26%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Termalica BB Nieciecza (rating 1544 vs 1483).
H2H favours Termalica BB Nieciecza: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Termalica BB Nieciecza	Chrobry Glogow
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.5	0.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.9	2.3 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.40

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
13:08 +9’	1.80	3.40	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Termalica BB Nieciecza 5–1–0 Chrobry Glogow

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/12/24 Poland I Liga	Termalica BB Nieciecza	3-2 HT 1-2	Chrobry Glogow
27/07/24 Poland I Liga	Chrobry Glogow	0-4 HT 0-0	Termalica BB Nieciecza
18/02/24 Poland I Liga	Termalica BB Nieciecza	1-1 HT 0-1	Chrobry Glogow
05/08/23 Poland I Liga	Chrobry Glogow	0-5 HT 0-1	Termalica BB Nieciecza
04/03/23 Poland I Liga	Chrobry Glogow	0-2 HT 0-2	Termalica BB Nieciecza
11/08/22 Poland I Liga	Termalica BB Nieciecza	3-1 HT 0-1	Chrobry Glogow

Standings · Poland I Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Polonia Warsaw	13	6	4	3	20	15	22
2	Lechia Gdansk	13	7	1	5	25	21	22
3	LKS Lodz	13	6	4	3	16	12	22
4	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	13	6	3	4	19	12	21
5	Ruch Chorzow	12	6	3	3	16	11	21
6	Polonia Bytom	13	5	6	2	23	20	21
7	Termalica BB Nieciecza	13	6	3	4	20	18	21
8	Miedz Legnica	13	5	4	4	19	12	19
9	Warta Poznan	13	6	1	6	20	17	19
10	Stal Rzeszow	13	5	3	5	18	24	18
11	Stal Mielec	13	4	4	5	17	27	16
12	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	13	2	9	2	16	17	15
13	MKP Pogon Siedlce	12	4	3	5	14	15	15
14	Arka Gdynia	12	4	2	6	16	16	14
15	Chrobry Glogow	12	3	4	5	13	15	13
16	Puszcza Niepolomice	13	4	1	8	15	19	13
17	Odra Opole	13	3	3	7	8	16	12
18	Unia Skierniewice	13	3	2	8	15	23	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Termalica BB Nieciecza	Chrobry Glogow
Miedz Legnica	1-1 D	1-1 D
Stal Mielec	2-1 W	0-0 D
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	2-2 D	0-4 L
Polonia Warsaw	1-3 L	0-2 L
LKS Lodz	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Termalica BB Nieciecza (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Termalica BB Nieciecza

LLDWWWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
24/10	Arka Gdynia Poland I Liga	0-3	1-3	7	5	L
19/10	Puszcza Niepolomice Poland I Liga	1-0	2-0	4	2	W
10/10	Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga	2-1	2-2	8	4	D
19/09	Odra Opole Poland I Liga	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
14/09	Stal Mielec Poland I Liga	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
04/09	Lechia Gdansk Poland I Liga	0-0	2-1	7	3	W
28/08	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga	1-1	2-2	4	4	D
22/08	Polonia Warsaw Poland I Liga	0-1	1-3	4	3	L
16/08	LKS Lodz Poland I Liga	0-2	1-2	8	3	L

Chrobry Glogow

WDLWDDLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Stal Mielec Poland I Liga	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
17/10	Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga	0-3	2-3	6	2	L
10/10	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga	0-3	0-4	5	1	L
19/09	Polonia Warsaw Poland I Liga	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
12/09	MKP Pogon Siedlce Poland I Liga	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
05/09	Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
30/08	Ruch Chorzow Poland I Liga	1-0	2-0	1	2	W
21/08	Warta Poznan Poland I Liga	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
15/08	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Poland I Liga	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
09/08	LKS Lodz Poland I Liga	1-1	2-1	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Termalica BB Nieciecza vs Chrobry Glogow?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Termalica BB Nieciecza win (49%). Probabilities: Termalica BB Nieciecza 49%, draw 27%, Chrobry Glogow 24%.

How many goals are expected in Termalica BB Nieciecza vs Chrobry Glogow?

The model expects 2.69 goals (Termalica BB Nieciecza 1.63 · Chrobry Glogow 1.07), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Termalica BB Nieciecza vs Chrobry Glogow?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.