Football · Poland I Liga · 08/11, 20:15
Prediction: Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzow
Team pages: Stal Mielec · Ruch Chorzow
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.86Total
Stal Mielec1.06
Ruch Chorzow1.81
1X2
Stal Mielec
Draw
Ruch Chorzow
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Stal Mielec
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Ruch Chorzow
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Stal Mielec
3–2–1
Ruch Chorzow
(6 last)
- Ruch Chorzow2-1Stal Mielec
- Stal Mielec2-2Ruch Chorzow
- Stal Mielec3-1Ruch Chorzow
- Ruch Chorzow1-1Stal Mielec
- Ruch Chorzow1-2Stal Mielec
- Stal Mielec1-0Ruch Chorzow
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stal Mielec 1467 · Ruch Chorzow 1582
| Stal Mielec | Draw | Ruch Chorzow | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 25% | 54% |
| Market | 21% | 25% | 54% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ruch Chorzow (rating 1467 vs 1582).
- H2H favours Stal Mielec: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Stal Mielec | Ruch Chorzow | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 2.2 | 1.6 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.9 | 0.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5 | 2.6 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.1 | 3.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stal Mielec 3–2–1 Ruch Chorzow
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Poland I Liga | Ruch Chorzow | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Stal Mielec |
| 31/08/25 Poland I Liga | Stal Mielec | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Ruch Chorzow |
| 10/03/24 Poland Ekstraklasa | Stal Mielec | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Ruch Chorzow |
| 01/09/23 Poland Ekstraklasa | Ruch Chorzow | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Stal Mielec |
| 17/11/17 Poland I Liga | Ruch Chorzow | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Stal Mielec |
| 28/07/17 Poland I Liga | Stal Mielec | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Ruch Chorzow |
Standings · Poland I Liga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polonia Warsaw | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 25 |
| 2 | Ruch Chorzow | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 12 | 22 |
| 3 | Lechia Gdansk | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 21 | 22 |
| 4 | LKS Lodz | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 12 | 22 |
| 5 | Termalica BB Nieciecza | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 20 | 22 |
| 6 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 12 | 21 |
| 7 | Polonia Bytom | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 23 | 20 | 21 |
| 8 | Miedz Legnica | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 13 | 20 |
| 9 | Warta Poznan | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 20 | 20 | 19 |
| 10 | Arka Gdynia | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 17 | 18 |
| 11 | Stal Rzeszow | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 24 | 18 |
| 12 | MKP Pogon Siedlce | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 16 | 16 |
| 13 | Stal Mielec | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 27 | 16 |
| 14 | Chrobry Glogow | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 17 | 15 |
| 15 | Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala | 14 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 17 | 20 | 15 |
| 16 | Puszcza Niepolomice | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 20 | 14 |
| 17 | Unia Skierniewice | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 26 | 14 |
| 18 | Odra Opole | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 21 | 12 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Stal Mielec | Ruch Chorzow |
|---|---|---|
| Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Chrobry Glogow | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Lechia Gdansk | 1-7 L | 1-0 W |
| Odra Opole | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| MKP Pogon Siedlce | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| LKS Lodz | 0-4 L | 2-0 W |
| Polonia Bytom | 5-2 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 3 L | 4 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Ruch Chorzow (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stal Mielec
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 24/10 | Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 6 | D |
| 17/10 | Miedz Legnica Poland I Liga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 11/10 | Warta Poznan Poland I Liga |
2-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 19/09 | Lechia Gdansk Poland I Liga |
1-2 | 1-7 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 14/09 | Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland I Liga |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 05/09 | Odra Opole Poland I Liga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 29/08 | MKP Pogon Siedlce Poland I Liga |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | LKS Lodz Poland I Liga |
0-1 | 0-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 16/08 | Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga |
2-1 | 5-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
Ruch Chorzow
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | MKP Pogon Siedlce Poland I Liga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 25/10 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 16/10 | Odra Opole Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 11/10 | LKS Lodz Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 18/09 | Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 12/09 | Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Poland I Liga |
1-1 | 3-3 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 07/09 | Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 30/08 | Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 24/08 | Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 9 | W |
| 14/08 | Lechia Gdansk Poland I Liga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzow?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Ruch Chorzow win (54%). Probabilities: Stal Mielec 21%, draw 25%, Ruch Chorzow 54%.
How many goals are expected in Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzow?
The model expects 2.86 goals (Stal Mielec 1.06 · Ruch Chorzow 1.81), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Ruch Chorzow?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.