Football · Poland I Liga · 08/11, 17:00

Prediction: MKP Pogon Siedlce vs Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki

Team pages: MKP Pogon Siedlce · Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

MKP Pogon Siedlce1.47

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki1.24

1X2

41% 28% 31%

MKP Pogon Siedlce Draw Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

MKP Pogon Siedlce 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDWLLLWD

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDDWLWWLLL

Head-to-head

MKP Pogon Siedlce 4–1–1 Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki (6 last)

MKP Pogon Siedlce2-2Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki0-2MKP Pogon Siedlce
MKP Pogon Siedlce1-2Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
MKP Pogon Siedlce3-1Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
MKP Pogon Siedlce2-0Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki1-2MKP Pogon Siedlce

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MKP Pogon Siedlce 1508 · Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 1466

	MKP Pogon Siedlce	Draw	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Our model	41%	28%	31%
Market	42%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MKP Pogon Siedlce (rating 1508 vs 1466).
H2H favours MKP Pogon Siedlce: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MKP Pogon Siedlce	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.1	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.5	2.5 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.30

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 05:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.15▼	Pinn 2.22
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.54
2	2.55 → 2.88▲	Pinn 3.21 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 4.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:30 +1’	2.35	3.30	2.55
18:23 +11’	2.25▼	3.30	2.63▲
05:10 +5’	2.15▼	3.30	2.88▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:12 +21’	2.12	3.57	3.13
19:36 +2’	2.16▲	3.48▼	3.21▲
11:52 +43’	2.19▲	3.47▼	3.15▼
17:01 +34’	2.21▲	3.52▲	3.19▲
05:05 +13’	2.22▲	3.54▲	3.21▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · MKP Pogon Siedlce 4–1–1 Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/07/26 Europe Friendlies	MKP Pogon Siedlce	2-2 HT 2-1	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
19/04/26 Poland I Liga	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	0-2 HT 0-1	MKP Pogon Siedlce
04/10/25 Poland I Liga	MKP Pogon Siedlce	1-2 HT 1-2	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
28/06/25 Europe Friendlies	MKP Pogon Siedlce	3-1 HT 1-1	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
09/07/22 Europe Friendlies	MKP Pogon Siedlce	2-0 HT 1-0	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
05/04/22 Poland II Liga	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	1-2 HT 1-1	MKP Pogon Siedlce

Standings · Poland I Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Polonia Warsaw	14	7	4	3	23	15	25
2	Ruch Chorzow	13	6	4	3	17	12	22
3	Lechia Gdansk	13	7	1	5	25	21	22
4	LKS Lodz	13	6	4	3	16	12	22
5	Termalica BB Nieciecza	14	6	4	4	22	20	22
6	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki	13	6	3	4	19	12	21
7	Polonia Bytom	13	5	6	2	23	20	21
8	Miedz Legnica	14	5	5	4	20	13	20
9	Warta Poznan	14	6	1	7	20	20	19
10	Arka Gdynia	14	5	3	6	19	17	18
11	Stal Rzeszow	13	5	3	5	18	24	18
12	MKP Pogon Siedlce	13	4	4	5	15	16	16
13	Stal Mielec	13	4	4	5	17	27	16
14	Chrobry Glogow	14	3	6	5	15	17	15
15	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala	14	2	9	3	17	20	15
16	Puszcza Niepolomice	14	4	2	8	16	20	14
17	Unia Skierniewice	14	4	2	8	20	26	14
18	Odra Opole	14	3	3	8	11	21	12

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MKP Pogon Siedlce	Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
Ruch Chorzow	1-1 D	0-2 L
Stal Rzeszow	3-4 L	1-1 D
Chrobry Glogow	0-0 D	4-0 W
Stal Mielec	2-0 W	0-1 L
Polonia Warsaw	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: MKP Pogon Siedlce (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MKP Pogon Siedlce

WLWDWLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Ruch Chorzow Poland I Liga	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
25/10	Odra Opole Poland I Liga	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
18/10	Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga	0-3	3-4	4	2	L
15/10	Puszcza Niepolomice Poland I Liga	0-0	1-3	8	7	L
09/10	Podbeskidzie Bielsko Biala Poland I Liga	0-1	0-1	10	4	L
20/09	Arka Gdynia Poland I Liga	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
12/09	Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
29/08	Stal Mielec Poland I Liga	2-0	2-0	5	3	W
21/08	Lechia Gdansk Poland I Liga	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
15/08	Polonia Warsaw Poland I Liga	1-0	1-0	3	6	W

Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki

DDDWLWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Stal Mielec Poland I Liga	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
25/10	Ruch Chorzow Poland I Liga	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
17/10	Polonia Warsaw Poland I Liga	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
10/10	Chrobry Glogow Poland I Liga	3-0	4-0	1	1	W
19/09	LKS Lodz Poland I Liga	1-0	2-0	8	5	W
13/09	Unia Skierniewice Poland I Liga	1-0	2-3	3	6	L
04/09	Warta Poznan Poland I Liga	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
28/08	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland I Liga	1-1	2-2	7	4	D
22/08	Polonia Bytom Poland I Liga	1-2	2-2	6	5	D
14/08	Stal Rzeszow Poland I Liga	0-0	1-1	7	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MKP Pogon Siedlce vs Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki?

According to our model, the most likely result is a MKP Pogon Siedlce win (41%). Probabilities: MKP Pogon Siedlce 41%, draw 28%, Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 31%.

How many goals are expected in MKP Pogon Siedlce vs Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki?

The model expects 2.71 goals (MKP Pogon Siedlce 1.47 · Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki 1.24), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in MKP Pogon Siedlce vs Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.