Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 27/10, 13:00

Prediction: Shurtan vs FK Orol Nukus

Team pages: Shurtan · FK Orol Nukus

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Shurtan1.51

FK Orol Nukus1.21

1X2

44% 25% 30%

Shurtan Draw FK Orol Nukus

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Shurtan 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLWWWWDL

FK Orol Nukus 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWLWDWWWW

Head-to-head

Shurtan 2–2–2 FK Orol Nukus (6 last)

Shurtan4-1FC Aral Nukus
FC Aral Nukus2-1Shurtan
Shurtan4-0FC Aral Nukus
FC Aral Nukus2-0Shurtan
Shurtan1-1FC Aral Nukus
Shurtan1-1FC Aral Nukus

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shurtan 1536 · FK Orol Nukus 1575

	Shurtan	Draw	FK Orol Nukus
Our model	43%	28%	29%
Market	45%	23%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shurtan	FK Orol Nukus
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.9	1.7 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.4	1.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 6.7	1.4 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.90

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
18:59 +7’	2.00	3.90	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Shurtan 2–2–2 FK Orol Nukus

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/06/25 Uzbekistan Cup	Shurtan	4-1 HT 2-0	FC Aral Nukus
05/11/24 Uzbekistan 1st Division	FC Aral Nukus	2-1	Shurtan
11/09/24 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Shurtan	4-0	FC Aral Nukus
13/06/24 Uzbekistan 1st Division	FC Aral Nukus	2-0	Shurtan
08/04/24 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Shurtan	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Aral Nukus
10/10/23 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Shurtan	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Aral Nukus

Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Orol Nukus	23	18	4	1	49	14	58
2	Metallurg Bekabad	24	14	6	4	53	19	48
3	Shurtan	23	14	4	5	40	23	46
4	Fardu Ferghana	24	12	7	5	41	34	43
5	Gazalkent	24	12	6	6	45	29	42
6	Kattaqorgon	23	12	4	7	32	24	40
7	FC Lochin	24	11	6	7	39	32	39
8	Olympic Mobiuz	23	11	6	6	46	28	39
9	Respublika FA	24	8	6	10	34	36	30
10	Jayxun	24	7	4	13	26	34	25
11	FC Yaypan Fergana	24	7	4	13	28	45	25
12	BuxDu	24	5	1	18	25	56	16
13	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	24	4	1	19	18	54	13
14	PFC Terdu	24	1	1	22	12	60	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shurtan	FK Orol Nukus
Metallurg Bekabad	1-1 D	1-0 W
Jayxun	3-1 W	2-0 W
Pakhtakor Tashkent II	4-0 W	2-1 W
FC Yaypan Fergana	4-1 W	5-2 W
FC Lochin	0-1 L	2-0 W
Fardu Ferghana	1-3 L	1-1 D
Kattaqorgon	1-0 W	1-0 W
Olympic Mobiuz	0-0 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	6 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Orol Nukus (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Shurtan

DWLLWWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-2	10	4	L
13/10	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
07/10	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-0	3-1	4	1	W
21/09	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-0	4-0	4	1	W
12/09	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
06/09	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	4-1	6	8	W
29/08	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
22/08	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-3	3	2	L
15/08	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-0	8	1	W
10/08	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-0	15	2	D

FK Orol Nukus

WDWLWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
13/10	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
21/09	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	4-1	5-2	6	4	W
13/09	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
07/09	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
27/08	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-0	11	9	W
20/08	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
15/08	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
10/08	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-0	–	–	D
05/08	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	1-0	5	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shurtan vs FK Orol Nukus?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Shurtan win (44%). Probabilities: Shurtan 44%, draw 25%, FK Orol Nukus 30%.

How many goals are expected in Shurtan vs FK Orol Nukus?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Shurtan 1.51 · FK Orol Nukus 1.21), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Shurtan vs FK Orol Nukus?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.