Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 25/10, 11:00

Prediction: Pakhtakor Tashkent II vs BuxDu

Team pages: Pakhtakor Tashkent II · BuxDu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.11Total

Pakhtakor Tashkent II1.88

BuxDu1.23

1X2

52% 24% 24%

Pakhtakor Tashkent II Draw BuxDu

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Pakhtakor Tashkent II 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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BuxDu 0-0-10 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Pakhtakor Tashkent II 0–1 BuxDu (1 last)

BuxDu2-0Pakhtakor Tashkent II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pakhtakor Tashkent II 1451 · BuxDu 1378

	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	Draw	BuxDu
Our model	52%	25%	24%
Market	52%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.11 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pakhtakor Tashkent II (rating 1451 vs 1378).
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	BuxDu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2	0.9 / 3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.1 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	75/0/25%	14/14/71%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 2.3	1 / 2.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0	3.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.75

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.73▼	Bet365 1.73
X	3.60 → 3.75▲	Bet365 3.75
2	3.20 → 3.70▲	Pinn 3.95 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:24 +7’	1.91	3.60	3.20
06:58 +5’	1.73▼	3.75▲	3.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:02 +4’	1.69	3.60	3.87
09:03 +58’	1.70▲	3.66▲	3.95▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Pakhtakor Tashkent II 0–0–1 BuxDu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/07/26 Uzbekistan 1st Division	BuxDu	2-0 HT 1-0	Pakhtakor Tashkent II

Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Orol Nukus	23	18	4	1	49	14	58
2	Metallurg Bekabad	23	14	5	4	51	17	47
3	Shurtan	23	14	4	5	40	23	46
4	Gazalkent	23	12	5	6	43	27	41
5	Kattaqorgon	23	12	4	7	32	24	40
6	Fardu Ferghana	23	11	7	5	39	33	40
7	FC Lochin	23	11	6	6	38	30	39
8	Olympic Mobiuz	23	11	6	6	46	28	39
9	Respublika FA	23	8	5	10	32	34	29
10	FC Yaypan Fergana	24	7	4	13	28	45	25
11	Jayxun	23	7	3	13	24	32	24
12	BuxDu	23	4	1	18	22	56	13
13	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	23	4	1	18	18	51	13
14	PFC Terdu	24	1	1	22	12	60	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	BuxDu
Respublika FA	2-0 W	1-2 L
FK Orol Nukus	1-2 L	0-2 L
Gazalkent	2-3 L	1-3 L
Shurtan	0-4 L	2-4 L
Metallurg Bekabad	0-1 L	0-4 L
FC Yaypan Fergana	0-2 L	1-2 L
FC Lochin	2-1 W	2-6 L
Fardu Ferghana	1-5 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 6 L	0 W 0 D 8 L

Better against common opponents: Pakhtakor Tashkent II (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pakhtakor Tashkent II

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-0	0	5	W
13/10	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
08/10	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-3	3	3	L
21/09	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-2	0-4	0	1	L
12/09	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
07/09	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-1	4	1	L
28/08	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	3-0	5	1	W
20/08	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-2	0	0	L
15/08	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
09/08	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-5	4	4	L

BuxDu

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
07/10	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-4	2-6	2	4	L
22/09	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-3	1-3	1	3	L
17/09	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-2	1-2	4	2	L
13/09	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-2	2	4	L
06/09	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	1-2	0	5	L
27/08	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-4	4	3	L
15/08	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
09/08	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-3	3	4	L
05/08	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	2-4	1	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pakhtakor Tashkent II vs BuxDu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pakhtakor Tashkent II win (52%). Probabilities: Pakhtakor Tashkent II 52%, draw 24%, BuxDu 24%.

How many goals are expected in Pakhtakor Tashkent II vs BuxDu?

The model expects 3.11 goals (Pakhtakor Tashkent II 1.88 · BuxDu 1.23), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Pakhtakor Tashkent II vs BuxDu?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.