Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 26/10, 13:00

Prediction: Metallurg Bekabad vs Gazalkent

Team pages: Metallurg Bekabad · Gazalkent

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.03Total

Metallurg Bekabad1.69

Gazalkent1.34

1X2

45% 25% 30%

Metallurg Bekabad Draw Gazalkent

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Metallurg Bekabad 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Gazalkent 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Metallurg Bekabad 0–1 Gazalkent (1 last)

Metallurg Bekabad2-3Gazalkent

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Metallurg Bekabad 1576 · Gazalkent 1562

	Metallurg Bekabad	Draw	Gazalkent
Our model	45%	26%	30%
Market	46%	23%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.03 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Metallurg Bekabad	Gazalkent
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.6	1.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/0/20%	25/50/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.1	4.3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	4.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.80

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 3.59 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
19:11 +3’	1.95	3.80	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:01 +60’	1.69	3.72	3.75
11:56 +4’	1.75▲	3.78▲	3.59▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Metallurg Bekabad 0–0–1 Gazalkent

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/07/26 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Metallurg Bekabad	2-3 HT 2-0	Gazalkent

Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Orol Nukus	23	18	4	1	49	14	58
2	Metallurg Bekabad	23	14	5	4	51	17	47
3	Shurtan	23	14	4	5	40	23	46
4	Gazalkent	23	12	5	6	43	27	41
5	Kattaqorgon	23	12	4	7	32	24	40
6	Fardu Ferghana	23	11	7	5	39	33	40
7	FC Lochin	23	11	6	6	38	30	39
8	Olympic Mobiuz	23	11	6	6	46	28	39
9	Respublika FA	24	8	6	10	34	36	30
10	Jayxun	24	7	4	13	26	34	25
11	FC Yaypan Fergana	24	7	4	13	28	45	25
12	BuxDu	24	5	1	18	25	56	16
13	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	24	4	1	19	18	54	13
14	PFC Terdu	24	1	1	22	12	60	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Metallurg Bekabad	Gazalkent
Fardu Ferghana	1-0 W	0-1 L
Shurtan	1-1 D	2-1 W
Jayxun	1-0 W	2-1 W
Pakhtakor Tashkent II	1-0 W	3-2 W
Olympic Mobiuz	3-2 W	0-1 L
BuxDu	4-0 W	3-1 W
PFC Terdu	3-0 W	4-1 W
FC Yaypan Fergana	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	6 W 2 D 0 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Metallurg Bekabad (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Metallurg Bekabad

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	1-0	0	3	W
13/10	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
20/09	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
07/09	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-0	5	1	W
02/09	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-1	3-2	4	4	W
27/08	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	4-0	5	3	W
20/08	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	3-0	–	–	W
15/08	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	3-1	6	3	W
10/08	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
05/08	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-1	5	0	L

Gazalkent

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-1	2	4	W
12/10	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
08/10	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	3-2	12	3	W
22/09	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	2-0	4-1	7	5	W
11/09	FC Yaypan Fergana Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
06/09	FC Lochin Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
28/08	Fardu Ferghana Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
21/08	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	4-2	2	3	W
14/08	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-1	3	6	L
09/08	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	3-1	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Metallurg Bekabad vs Gazalkent?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Metallurg Bekabad win (45%). Probabilities: Metallurg Bekabad 45%, draw 25%, Gazalkent 30%.

How many goals are expected in Metallurg Bekabad vs Gazalkent?

The model expects 3.03 goals (Metallurg Bekabad 1.69 · Gazalkent 1.34), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Metallurg Bekabad vs Gazalkent?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.