Football · Uzbekistan 1st Division · 26/10, 11:00

Prediction: FC Lochin vs Fardu Ferghana

Team pages: FC Lochin · Fardu Ferghana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.52Total

FC Lochin1.92

Fardu Ferghana1.6

1X2

45% 23% 32%

FC Lochin Draw Fardu Ferghana

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Lochin 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWDLLWWD

Fardu Ferghana 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWDWWDLL

Head-to-head

FC Lochin 0–1 Fardu Ferghana (1 last)

Fardu Ferghana2-1FC Lochin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Lochin 1512 · Fardu Ferghana 1527

	FC Lochin	Draw	Fardu Ferghana
Our model	45%	24%	32%
Market	45%	23%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.52 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Lochin	Fardu Ferghana
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.6	1.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.7 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	67/0/33%	29/29/43%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.2	3.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X4.00

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 10:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.90 → 4.00▲	Bet365 4.00
2	2.75 → 2.90▲	Pinn 3.10 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:04 +8’	2.05	3.90	2.75
22:01 +1’	2.00▼	4.00▲	3.00▲
09:47 +14’	2.05▲	4.00	2.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:02 +59’	2.00	3.58	2.88
07:00 +1’	1.96▼	3.45▼	3.06▲
10:00 +1’	1.98▲	3.51▲	3.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Lochin 0–0–1 Fardu Ferghana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Uzbekistan 1st Division	Fardu Ferghana	2-1 HT 1-0	FC Lochin

Standings · Uzbekistan 1st Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Orol Nukus	23	18	4	1	49	14	58
2	Metallurg Bekabad	23	14	5	4	51	17	47
3	Shurtan	23	14	4	5	40	23	46
4	Gazalkent	23	12	5	6	43	27	41
5	Kattaqorgon	23	12	4	7	32	24	40
6	Fardu Ferghana	23	11	7	5	39	33	40
7	FC Lochin	23	11	6	6	38	30	39
8	Olympic Mobiuz	23	11	6	6	46	28	39
9	Respublika FA	24	8	6	10	34	36	30
10	Jayxun	24	7	4	13	26	34	25
11	FC Yaypan Fergana	24	7	4	13	28	45	25
12	BuxDu	24	5	1	18	25	56	16
13	Pakhtakor Tashkent II	24	4	1	19	18	54	13
14	PFC Terdu	24	1	1	22	12	60	4

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Lochin	Fardu Ferghana
Kattaqorgon	4-4 D	0-3 L
Olympic Mobiuz	2-1 W	2-2 D
BuxDu	6-2 W	3-1 W
Respublika FA	0-3 L	3-2 W
FK Orol Nukus	0-2 L	1-1 D
Gazalkent	1-1 D	1-0 W
Shurtan	1-0 W	3-1 W
Jayxun	1-0 W	0-0 D
Pakhtakor Tashkent II	1-2 L	5-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 3 L	5 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Fardu Ferghana (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Lochin

WLWWDLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	4-4	–	–	D
12/10	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-1	6	7	W
07/10	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	4-0	6-2	2	4	W
21/09	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-2	0-3	6	3	L
13/09	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
06/09	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
29/08	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
20/08	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-0	1	5	W
15/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
10/08	PFC Terdu Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	2-1	6	5	W

Fardu Ferghana

WDWWDWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Metallurg Bekabad Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	0-1	6	3	L
12/10	Kattaqorgon Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-2	0-3	7	6	L
07/10	Olympic Mobiuz Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-0	2-2	4	2	D
22/09	BuxDu Uzbekistan 1st Division	3-0	3-1	7	3	W
12/09	Respublika FA Uzbekistan 1st Division	1-1	3-2	5	4	W
07/09	FK Orol Nukus Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
28/08	Gazalkent Uzbekistan 1st Division	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
22/08	Shurtan Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	3-1	2	2	W
14/08	Jayxun Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	0-0	–	–	D
09/08	Pakhtakor Tashkent II Uzbekistan 1st Division	–	5-1	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Lochin vs Fardu Ferghana?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Lochin win (45%). Probabilities: FC Lochin 45%, draw 23%, Fardu Ferghana 32%.

How many goals are expected in FC Lochin vs Fardu Ferghana?

The model expects 3.52 goals (FC Lochin 1.92 · Fardu Ferghana 1.6), with a 53% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Lochin vs Fardu Ferghana?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.