Football · Canada Premier League · 07/11, 19:00

Prediction: Forge FC vs Atletico Ottawa

Team pages: Forge FC · Atletico Ottawa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Forge FC1.97

Atletico Ottawa1.01

1X2

59% 23% 18%

Forge FC Draw Atletico Ottawa

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Forge FC 4-6-0 (W-D-L)

DWDDDWWWDD

Atletico Ottawa 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLWWWLLD

Head-to-head

Forge FC 3–1–2 Atletico Ottawa (6 last)

Atletico Ottawa2-2Forge FC
Atletico Ottawa1-2Forge FC
Forge FC3-0Atletico Ottawa
Atletico Ottawa2-1Forge FC
Forge FC2-0Atletico Ottawa
Forge FC1-2Atletico Ottawa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Forge FC 1558 · Atletico Ottawa 1493

	Forge FC	Draw	Atletico Ottawa
Our model	59%	23%	18%
Market	59%	23%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Forge FC (rating 1558 vs 1493).
H2H favours Forge FC: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Forge FC	Atletico Ottawa
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.2 / 6.7	1.8 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.88

2 (+1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 15:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.53▲	Bet365 1.53
X	4.33 → 4.00▼	Pinn 4.14
2	5.75 → 5.00▼	Pinn 5.23 ★

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 10.2% Pinnacle margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:11 +2’	1.40	4.33	5.75
09:58 +16’	1.42▲	4.20▼	5.50▼
11:55 +29’	1.53▲	3.90▼	4.75▼
14:13 +9’	1.50▼	4.00▲	5.00▲
15:29 +45’	1.53▲	4.10▲	5.25▲
13:30 +109’	1.53	4.00▼	5.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:07 +8’	1.55	4.18	5.02
14:01 +20’	1.51▼	4.26▲	5.26▲
15:03 +16’	1.53▲	4.14▼	5.23▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Forge FC 3–1–2 Atletico Ottawa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/11/26 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	2-2 HT 2-2	Forge FC
17/10/26 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	1-2 HT 0-1	Forge FC
13/09/26 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	3-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Ottawa
24/05/26 Canada Premier League	Atletico Ottawa	2-1 HT 0-0	Forge FC
04/04/26 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Ottawa
26/10/25 Canada Premier League	Forge FC	1-2 HT 1-1	Atletico Ottawa

Standings · Canada Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cavalry FC	28	18	6	4	58	23	60
2	Forge FC	28	17	7	4	49	22	58
3	Atletico Ottawa	28	13	4	11	42	45	43
4	Supra du Quebec	28	11	5	12	47	50	38
5	Vancouver FC	28	10	7	11	39	37	37
6	Inter Toronto	28	7	9	12	42	65	30
7	HFX Wanderers	28	7	7	14	44	50	28
8	Pacific FC (CA)	28	2	9	17	33	62	15

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Forge FC	Atletico Ottawa
Pacific FC (CA)	1-1 D	2-0 W
Inter Toronto	5-0 W	1-2 L
HFX Wanderers	3-3 D	1-0 W
Cavalry FC	1-1 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Ottawa (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Forge FC

DWDDDWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	2-2	2-2	12	1	D
25/10	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
17/10	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	1-0	2-1	3	6	W
12/10	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	3-0	5-0	5	1	W
08/10	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	1-0	3-0	13	3	W
03/10	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	1-0	3-3	8	2	D
27/09	Vancouver FC Canada Premier League	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
19/09	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	6	D
13/09	Atletico Ottawa Canada Premier League	0-0	3-0	3	6	W
06/09	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	0-1	1-1	7	5	D

Atletico Ottawa

WDLLWWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Forge FC Canada Premier League	2-2	2-2	5	1	D
25/10	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
17/10	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
12/10	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	1-0	2-0	8	7	W
01/10	Cavalry FC Canada Premier League	0-1	3-2	7	6	W
26/09	HFX Wanderers Canada Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
20/09	Supra du Quebec Canada Premier League	0-0	0-2	7	3	L
13/09	Forge FC Canada Premier League	0-0	0-3	4	6	L
05/09	Pacific FC (CA) Canada Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
29/08	Inter Toronto Canada Premier League	0-1	2-1	3	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Forge FC vs Atletico Ottawa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Forge FC win (59%). Probabilities: Forge FC 59%, draw 23%, Atletico Ottawa 18%.

How many goals are expected in Forge FC vs Atletico Ottawa?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Forge FC 1.97 · Atletico Ottawa 1.01), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Forge FC vs Atletico Ottawa?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.