Football · USA USL Championship · 02/11, 00:00

Prediction: New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising FC

Team pages: New Mexico United · Phoenix Rising FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

New Mexico United1.87

Phoenix Rising FC1.49

1X2

46% 24% 30%

New Mexico United Draw Phoenix Rising FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

New Mexico United 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDDDLLWWLW

Phoenix Rising FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWDWLLLWWD

Head-to-head

New Mexico United 3–1–2 Phoenix Rising FC (6 last)

New Mexico United2-1Phoenix Rising FC
New Mexico United4-0Phoenix Rising FC
Phoenix Rising FC3-0New Mexico United
Phoenix Rising FC0-1New Mexico United
Phoenix Rising FC3-3New Mexico United
New Mexico United1-2Phoenix Rising FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New Mexico United 1513 · Phoenix Rising FC 1509

	New Mexico United	Draw	Phoenix Rising FC
Our model	46%	24%	30%
Market	46%	24%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours New Mexico United: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New Mexico United	Phoenix Rising FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	1.8 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.8	1.6 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.75

23.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 3.83
2	3.05 → 3.05	Pinn 3.48 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.5% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:28 +7’	2.00	3.75	3.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:11 +15’	2.19	3.74	2.83
01:13 +8’	2.21▲	3.79▲	2.86▲
07:04 +10’	2.14▼	3.75▼	2.99▲
04:05 +17’	2.04▼	3.79▲	3.19▲
05:52 +30’	1.92▼	3.83▲	3.48▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · New Mexico United 3–1–2 Phoenix Rising FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/10/26 USA USL Championship	New Mexico United	2-1 HT 1-0	Phoenix Rising FC
07/06/26 USA USL Cup	New Mexico United	4-0 HT 1-0	Phoenix Rising FC
12/04/26 USA USL Championship	Phoenix Rising FC	3-0 HT 1-0	New Mexico United
05/10/25 USA USL Championship	Phoenix Rising FC	0-1 HT 0-0	New Mexico United
01/06/25 USA USL Cup	Phoenix Rising FC	3-3 HT 2-1	New Mexico United
11/05/25 USA USL Championship	New Mexico United	1-2 HT 0-1	Phoenix Rising FC

Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	New Mexico United	30	15	7	8	45	34	52
2	Sacramento Republic	30	13	12	5	42	28	51
3	El Paso Locomotive FC	30	15	5	10	48	38	50
4	Lexington SC	30	14	6	10	57	39	48
5	Colorado Switchbacks FC	30	13	8	9	44	38	47
6	San Antonio FC	30	11	12	7	32	30	45
7	Tulsa	30	11	10	9	34	31	43
8	Phoenix Rising FC	30	10	10	10	45	46	40
9	Orange County SC	30	10	9	11	39	49	39
10	Oakland Roots	30	9	11	10	39	40	38
11	Las Vegas Lights FC	30	10	6	14	41	48	36
12	Monterey Bay FC	30	6	6	18	32	52	24

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New Mexico United	Phoenix Rising FC
El Paso Locomotive FC	1-0 W	1-3 L
Monterey Bay FC	3-1 W	1-1 D
Tulsa	0-1 L	2-1 W
Sacramento Republic	2-3 L	2-2 D
Indy Eleven	2-2 D	2-1 W
Las Vegas Lights FC	2-1 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Phoenix Rising FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

New Mexico United

WDDDLLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
18/10	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
11/10	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	2-0	3-1	7	4	W
05/10	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
01/10	Tulsa USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
27/09	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	0-1	2-3	4	6	L
20/09	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
17/09	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	2-1	4-4	0	5	D
12/09	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	2-0	2-2	1	4	D
06/09	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-1	8	3	W

Phoenix Rising FC

DWDWLLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	2-1	3-3	7	6	D
18/10	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	2-0	3-1	6	6	W
11/10	Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship	3-0	3-2	3	1	W
05/10	New Mexico United USA USL Championship	0-1	1-2	4	7	L
27/09	Oakland Roots USA USL Championship	0-2	0-3	6	2	L
20/09	El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-3	6	8	L
13/09	Tulsa USA USL Championship	1-0	2-1	1	2	W
06/09	Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
30/08	Indy Eleven USA USL Championship	2-1	2-1	2	5	W
23/08	Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship	1-2	2-2	2	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a New Mexico United win (46%). Probabilities: New Mexico United 46%, draw 24%, Phoenix Rising FC 30%.

How many goals are expected in New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising FC?

The model expects 3.36 goals (New Mexico United 1.87 · Phoenix Rising FC 1.49), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.