Football · USA USL Championship · 01/11, 20:00
Prediction: Lexington SC vs Colorado Switchbacks FC
Team pages: Lexington SC · Colorado Switchbacks FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.94Total
Lexington SC1.69
Colorado Switchbacks FC1.25
1X2
Lexington SC
Draw
Colorado Switchbacks FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Lexington SC
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Colorado Switchbacks FC
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lexington SC
1–1–2
Colorado Switchbacks FC
(4 last)
- Lexington SC0-1Colorado Switchbacks FC
- Colorado Switchbacks FC1-1Lexington SC
- Colorado Switchbacks FC3-1Lexington SC
- Lexington SC2-1Colorado Switchbacks FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lexington SC 1548 · Colorado Switchbacks FC 1540
| Lexington SC | Draw | Colorado Switchbacks FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Market | 47% | 25% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Colorado Switchbacks FC: 2-1-1.
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lexington SC | Colorado Switchbacks FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 1.6 | 1.2 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 20/80/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6.6 | 2.8 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.2 | 3.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lexington SC 1–1–2 Colorado Switchbacks FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/26 USA USL Championship | Lexington SC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Colorado Switchbacks FC |
| 04/04/26 USA USL Championship | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Lexington SC |
| 02/08/25 USA USL Championship | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Lexington SC |
| 21/06/25 USA USL Championship | Lexington SC | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Colorado Switchbacks FC |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Mexico United | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 45 | 34 | 52 |
| 2 | Sacramento Republic | 30 | 13 | 12 | 5 | 42 | 28 | 51 |
| 3 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 48 | 38 | 50 |
| 4 | Lexington SC | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 57 | 39 | 48 |
| 5 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 44 | 38 | 47 |
| 6 | San Antonio FC | 30 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 32 | 30 | 45 |
| 7 | Tulsa | 30 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 34 | 31 | 43 |
| 8 | Phoenix Rising FC | 30 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 45 | 46 | 40 |
| 9 | Orange County SC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 39 | 49 | 39 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 30 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 39 | 40 | 38 |
| 11 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 41 | 48 | 36 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 30 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 32 | 52 | 24 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lexington SC | Colorado Switchbacks FC |
|---|---|---|
| Tulsa | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| El Paso Locomotive FC | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Monterey Bay FC | 3-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Oakland Roots | 4-1 W | 0-0 D |
| New Mexico United | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lexington SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
1-2 | 3-3 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 18/10 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship |
2-2 | 5-3 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 10/10 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 04/10 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 27/09 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 3-2 | 13 | 5 | W |
| 20/09 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
4-0 | 6-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 13/09 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 4-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Sporting JAX USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 2-3 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 30/08 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 27/08 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
Colorado Switchbacks FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Tulsa USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 18/10 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 11/10 | Sacramento Republic USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 04/10 | Oakland Roots USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 0 | D |
| 27/09 | Detroit City FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 20/09 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 12/09 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship |
1-1 | 5-4 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Lexington SC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 23/08 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lexington SC vs Colorado Switchbacks FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lexington SC win (47%). Probabilities: Lexington SC 47%, draw 26%, Colorado Switchbacks FC 28%.
How many goals are expected in Lexington SC vs Colorado Switchbacks FC?
The model expects 2.94 goals (Lexington SC 1.69 · Colorado Switchbacks FC 1.25), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Lexington SC vs Colorado Switchbacks FC?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.