Football · Dominican Republic Liga · 24/10, 22:00

Prediction: Atlantico FC vs Atletico Vega Real

Team pages: Atlantico FC · Atletico Vega Real

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

Atlantico FC0.53

Atletico Vega Real2.23

1X2

7% 17% 76%

Atlantico FC Draw Atletico Vega Real

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-2 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Atlantico FC 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLWDDLLLLL

Atletico Vega Real 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWLWWWLD

Head-to-head

Atlantico FC 2–1–3 Atletico Vega Real (6 last)

Atletico Vega Real5-0Atlantico FC
Atletico Vega Real0-1Atlantico FC
Atlantico FC0-1Atletico Vega Real
Atlantico FC0-0Atletico Vega Real
Atletico Vega Real0-1Atlantico FC
Atlantico FC1-2Atletico Vega Real

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atlantico FC 1439 · Atletico Vega Real 1502

	Atlantico FC	Draw	Atletico Vega Real
Our model	7%	18%	76%
Market	8%	16%	77%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Vega Real (rating 1439 vs 1502).
H2H favours Atletico Vega Real: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atlantico FC	Atletico Vega Real
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.2	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.2	2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	5.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

112.00

X5.75

21.18

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.90

2 (-2)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.00 → 12.00▲	Bet365 12.00
X	5.00 → 5.75▲	Bet365 5.75
2	1.30 → 1.18▼	Bet365 1.18

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
21:13 +12’	7.00	5.00	1.30
09:37 +5’	12.00▲	5.75▲	1.18▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Atlantico FC 2–1–3 Atletico Vega Real

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/09/26 Dominican Republic Liga	Atletico Vega Real	5-0 HT 3-0	Atlantico FC
23/11/25 Dominican Republic Liga	Atletico Vega Real	0-1 HT 0-0	Atlantico FC
30/08/25 Dominican Republic Liga	Atlantico FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Vega Real
06/07/24 Dominican Republic Liga	Atlantico FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Vega Real
26/05/24 Dominican Republic Liga	Atletico Vega Real	0-1 HT 0-1	Atlantico FC
21/04/24 Dominican Republic Liga	Atlantico FC	1-2 HT 1-1	Atletico Vega Real

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atlantico FC	Atletico Vega Real
Delfines Del Este	1-3 L	0-1 L
Salcedo FC	1-6 L	0-1 L
Cibao FC	1-4 L	0-0 D
Jarabacoa FC	0-2 L	3-1 W
Universidad O&M	2-0 W	1-0 W
Moca FC	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 5 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico Vega Real (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atlantico FC

WLWDDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Delfines Del Este Dominican Republic Liga	1-0	1-3	4	2	L
13/09	Atletico Vega Real Dominican Republic Liga	0-3	0-5	2	4	L
06/09	Salcedo FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-3	1-6	4	4	L
29/08	Cibao FC Dominican Republic Liga	1-3	1-4	3	6	L
25/08	Jarabacoa FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
22/08	Delfines Del Este Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	0-0	4	8	D
17/12	Jarabacoa FC Dominican Republic Liga	1-0	1-1	5	0	D
14/12	Universidad O&M Dominican Republic Liga	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
06/12	Moca FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	0-1	1	6	L
23/11	Atletico Vega Real Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	1-0	4	5	W

Atletico Vega Real

WLLWLWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Cibao FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
11/10	Salcedo FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-1	0-1	2	10	L
03/10	Universidad O&M Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
27/09	Moca FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
24/09	Jarabacoa FC Dominican Republic Liga	2-1	3-1	3	5	W
20/09	Delfines Del Este Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	0-1	5	8	L
13/09	Atlantico FC Dominican Republic Liga	3-0	5-0	8	4	W
06/09	Cibao FC Dominican Republic Liga	1-1	1-2	4	10	L
30/08	Salcedo FC Dominican Republic Liga	0-0	1-3	6	3	L
26/08	Universidad O&M Dominican Republic Liga	2-1	2-1	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atlantico FC vs Atletico Vega Real?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Atletico Vega Real win (76%). Probabilities: Atlantico FC 7%, draw 17%, Atletico Vega Real 76%.

How many goals are expected in Atlantico FC vs Atletico Vega Real?

The model expects 2.77 goals (Atlantico FC 0.53 · Atletico Vega Real 2.23), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Atlantico FC vs Atletico Vega Real?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.