Football · Luxembourg Division Nationale · 24/10, 18:00
Prediction: FC Etzella Ettelbruck vs Progres Niedercorn
Team pages: FC Etzella Ettelbruck · Progres Niedercorn
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.9Total
FC Etzella Ettelbruck0.97
Progres Niedercorn1.93
1X2
FC Etzella Ettelbruck
Draw
Progres Niedercorn
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Etzella Ettelbruck
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Progres Niedercorn
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Etzella Ettelbruck
0–1–5
Progres Niedercorn
(6 last)
- Progres Niedercorn3-1FC Etzella Ettelbruck
- FC Etzella Ettelbruck0-1Progres Niedercorn
- FC Etzella Ettelbruck1-1Progres Niedercorn
- Progres Niedercorn6-0FC Etzella Ettelbruck
- Progres Niedercorn3-1FC Etzella Ettelbruck
- FC Etzella Ettelbruck0-1Progres Niedercorn
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Etzella Ettelbruck 1428 · Progres Niedercorn 1539
| FC Etzella Ettelbruck | Draw | Progres Niedercorn | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 17% | 24% | 59% |
| Market | 19% | 21% | 60% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.9 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Progres Niedercorn (rating 1428 vs 1539).
- H2H favours Progres Niedercorn: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 12.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Etzella Ettelbruck | Progres Niedercorn | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.9 | 1.6 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 4 | 2.4 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 7 / 0.4 | 5.2 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Etzella Ettelbruck 0–1–5 Progres Niedercorn
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04/23 Luxembourg Division Nationale | Progres Niedercorn | 3-1 HT 1-0 | FC Etzella Ettelbruck |
| 13/11/22 Luxembourg Division Nationale | FC Etzella Ettelbruck | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Progres Niedercorn |
| 07/05/22 Luxembourg Division Nationale | FC Etzella Ettelbruck | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Progres Niedercorn |
| 04/12/21 Luxembourg Division Nationale | Progres Niedercorn | 6-0 HT 3-0 | FC Etzella Ettelbruck |
| 02/05/21 Luxembourg Division Nationale | Progres Niedercorn | 3-1 HT 2-0 | FC Etzella Ettelbruck |
| 10/03/21 Luxembourg Division Nationale | FC Etzella Ettelbruck | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Progres Niedercorn |
Standings · Luxembourg Division Nationale
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 3 | 28 |
| 2 | FC 03 Differdange | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 30 | 8 | 27 |
| 3 | US Mondorf-Les-Bains | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 13 | 24 |
| 4 | UN Kaerjeng | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 29 | 17 | 21 |
| 5 | Union Luxembourg | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 11 | 19 |
| 6 | Bissen | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 14 | 19 |
| 7 | Progres Niedercorn | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 7 | 19 |
| 8 | Residence Walferdange | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 19 | 16 |
| 9 | F91 Dudelange | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 16 | 16 | 13 |
| 10 | US Hostert | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 18 | 11 |
| 11 | Jeunesse Esch | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 16 | 21 | 10 |
| 12 | Victoria Rosport | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 25 | 8 |
| 13 | Rumelange | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 28 | 7 |
| 14 | FC Etzella Ettelbruck | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 19 | 5 |
| 15 | Wiltz | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 28 | 4 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 10 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 38 | -12 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Etzella Ettelbruck | Progres Niedercorn |
|---|---|---|
| Jeunesse Esch | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Residence Walferdange | 0-5 L | 1-0 W |
| UN Kaerjeng | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| US Hostert | 1-5 L | 2-0 W |
| Union Luxembourg | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Wiltz | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 5 L | 4 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Progres Niedercorn (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Etzella Ettelbruck
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 11/10 | F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 9 | L |
| 16/09 | Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 11 | D |
| 12/09 | FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 7 | L |
| 06/09 | Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 30/08 | Residence Walferdange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-2 | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 23/08 | UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 16/08 | US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-3 | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 09/08 | Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 01/08 | Wiltz Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Progres Niedercorn
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 11/10 | US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale |
2-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 16/09 | Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 12/09 | Wiltz Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 06/09 | Rumelange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 30/08 | US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 22/08 | UNA Strassen Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 16/08 | Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 09/08 | Residence Walferdange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 01/08 | Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Etzella Ettelbruck vs Progres Niedercorn?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Progres Niedercorn win (60%). Probabilities: FC Etzella Ettelbruck 18%, draw 22%, Progres Niedercorn 60%.
How many goals are expected in FC Etzella Ettelbruck vs Progres Niedercorn?
The model expects 2.9 goals (FC Etzella Ettelbruck 0.97 · Progres Niedercorn 1.93), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Etzella Ettelbruck vs Progres Niedercorn?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.