Football · Luxembourg Division Nationale · 31/10, 18:00

Prediction: UNA Strassen vs UN Kaerjeng

Team pages: UNA Strassen · UN Kaerjeng

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

UNA Strassen1.81

UN Kaerjeng0.95

1X2

57% 24% 19%

UNA Strassen Draw UN Kaerjeng

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

UNA Strassen 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

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UN Kaerjeng 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

UNA Strassen 4–2 UN Kaerjeng (6 last)

UN Kaerjeng1-0UNA Strassen
UNA Strassen4-0UN Kaerjeng
UN Kaerjeng0-1UNA Strassen
UNA Strassen2-1UN Kaerjeng
UN Kaerjeng1-2UNA Strassen
UNA Strassen0-2UN Kaerjeng

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UNA Strassen 1626 · UN Kaerjeng 1557

	UNA Strassen	Draw	UN Kaerjeng
Our model	56%	25%	19%
Market	58%	22%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UNA Strassen (rating 1626 vs 1557).
H2H favours UNA Strassen: 4-0-2.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UNA Strassen	UN Kaerjeng
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.3	2.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.1	1.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	60/10/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.7	2.6 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.3	4.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.55

X4.00

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Pinn 1.57
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.08
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.93 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:35 +11’	1.55	4.00	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:40 +11’	1.57	4.08	4.93

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · UNA Strassen 4–0–2 UN Kaerjeng

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Luxembourg Division Nationale	UN Kaerjeng	1-0 HT 1-0	UNA Strassen
01/10/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	UNA Strassen	4-0 HT 2-0	UN Kaerjeng
11/02/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale	UN Kaerjeng	0-1 HT 0-1	UNA Strassen
13/08/23 Luxembourg Division Nationale	UNA Strassen	2-1 HT 2-1	UN Kaerjeng
12/03/23 Luxembourg Division Nationale	UN Kaerjeng	1-2 HT 1-1	UNA Strassen
11/09/22 Luxembourg Division Nationale	UNA Strassen	0-2 HT 0-0	UN Kaerjeng

Standings · Luxembourg Division Nationale

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UNA Strassen	11	10	1	0	22	3	31
2	FC 03 Differdange	11	10	0	1	32	9	30
3	US Mondorf-Les-Bains	11	8	0	3	22	19	24
4	Union Luxembourg	11	6	4	1	30	11	22
5	Bissen	11	7	1	3	27	15	22
6	UN Kaerjeng	11	7	0	4	30	19	21
7	Progres Niedercorn	11	6	1	4	16	9	19
8	Residence Walferdange	11	5	1	5	20	23	16
9	F91 Dudelange	11	4	1	6	17	18	13
10	Jeunesse Esch	11	4	1	6	19	21	13
11	Victoria Rosport	11	3	2	6	21	26	11
12	US Hostert	11	3	2	6	15	20	11
13	FC Etzella Ettelbruck	11	2	2	7	9	19	8
14	Rumelange	11	2	2	7	15	31	8
15	Wiltz	11	1	2	8	18	31	5
16	Swift Hesperange	11	0	0	11	2	41	-12

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UNA Strassen	UN Kaerjeng
US Hostert	2-0 W	4-2 W
Residence Walferdange	3-0 W	1-2 L
Bissen	2-1 W	1-2 L
Progres Niedercorn	1-0 W	2-1 W
Jeunesse Esch	1-0 W	4-1 W
F91 Dudelange	2-0 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 0 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: UNA Strassen (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UNA Strassen

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
18/10	Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
11/10	Wiltz Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	2-0	10	2	W
16/09	Rumelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-0	6	8	W
13/09	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-1	11	4	W
06/09	Residence Walferdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	3-0	3-0	–	–	W
30/08	Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-1	2	11	W
22/08	Progres Niedercorn Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
16/08	Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
09/08	F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-0	–	–	W

UN Kaerjeng

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	1-2	6	8	L
17/10	Progres Niedercorn Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
11/10	Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	4-1	–	–	W
16/09	F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-1	4-2	5	5	W
11/09	Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale	4-0	5-0	5	5	W
06/09	FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	1-4	8	3	L
30/08	Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale	3-0	6-0	–	–	W
23/08	FC Etzella Ettelbruck Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
16/08	Residence Walferdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
09/08	US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-1	4-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UNA Strassen vs UN Kaerjeng?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UNA Strassen win (57%). Probabilities: UNA Strassen 57%, draw 24%, UN Kaerjeng 19%.

How many goals are expected in UNA Strassen vs UN Kaerjeng?

The model expects 2.76 goals (UNA Strassen 1.81 · UN Kaerjeng 0.95), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in UNA Strassen vs UN Kaerjeng?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.