Football · Luxembourg Division Nationale · 31/10, 18:00
Prediction: Progres Niedercorn vs Swift Hesperange
Team pages: Progres Niedercorn · Swift Hesperange
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.35Total
Progres Niedercorn2.68
Swift Hesperange0.68
1X2
Progres Niedercorn
Draw
Swift Hesperange
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
2-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Progres Niedercorn
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Swift Hesperange
0-0-10 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Progres Niedercorn
1–4–1
Swift Hesperange
(6 last)
- Progres Niedercorn1-1Swift Hesperange
- Swift Hesperange1-4Progres Niedercorn
- Swift Hesperange1-0Progres Niedercorn
- Progres Niedercorn1-1Swift Hesperange
- Swift Hesperange1-1Progres Niedercorn
- Swift Hesperange0-0Progres Niedercorn
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Progres Niedercorn 1516 · Swift Hesperange 1354
| Progres Niedercorn | Draw | Swift Hesperange | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 79% | 15% | 6% |
| Market | 81% | 15% | 4% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Progres Niedercorn (rating 1516 vs 1354).
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Progres Niedercorn | Swift Hesperange | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.8 | 0.2 / 4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.1 | 0 / 1.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 0/20/80% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 5.3 | 0.3 / 2.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.7 | 2.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Progres Niedercorn 1–4–1 Swift Hesperange
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/26 Luxembourg Division Nationale | Progres Niedercorn | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Swift Hesperange |
| 17/08/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale | Swift Hesperange | 1-4 HT 0-1 | Progres Niedercorn |
| 18/05/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale | Swift Hesperange | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Progres Niedercorn |
| 11/12/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale | Progres Niedercorn | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Swift Hesperange |
| 09/05/24 Luxembourg Cup | Swift Hesperange | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Progres Niedercorn |
| 25/02/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale | Swift Hesperange | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Progres Niedercorn |
Standings · Luxembourg Division Nationale
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 3 | 31 |
| 2 | FC 03 Differdange | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 9 | 30 |
| 3 | US Mondorf-Les-Bains | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 19 | 24 |
| 4 | Union Luxembourg | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 11 | 22 |
| 5 | Bissen | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 22 |
| 6 | UN Kaerjeng | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 30 | 19 | 21 |
| 7 | Progres Niedercorn | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 9 | 19 |
| 8 | Residence Walferdange | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 23 | 16 |
| 9 | F91 Dudelange | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 18 | 13 |
| 10 | Jeunesse Esch | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 21 | 13 |
| 11 | Victoria Rosport | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 26 | 11 |
| 12 | US Hostert | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 | 20 | 11 |
| 13 | FC Etzella Ettelbruck | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 19 | 8 |
| 14 | Rumelange | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 31 | 8 |
| 15 | Wiltz | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 31 | 5 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 41 | -12 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Progres Niedercorn | Swift Hesperange |
|---|---|---|
| FC Etzella Ettelbruck | 0-2 L | 0-3 L |
| UN Kaerjeng | 1-2 L | 0-6 L |
| US Hostert | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Union Luxembourg | 0-0 D | 0-5 L |
| Wiltz | 2-1 W | 2-7 L |
| Residence Walferdange | 1-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 0 W 0 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Progres Niedercorn (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Progres Niedercorn
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | FC Etzella Ettelbruck Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-0 | 0-2 | 10 | 9 | L |
| 17/10 | UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 11/10 | US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale |
2-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 7 | W |
| 16/09 | Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 12/09 | Wiltz Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 06/09 | Rumelange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 30/08 | US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 22/08 | UNA Strassen Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 16/08 | Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 09/08 | Residence Walferdange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
Swift Hesperange
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 18/10 | F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-2 | 0-5 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 11/10 | Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 16/09 | FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-2 | 0-3 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 13/09 | Residence Walferdange Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 06/09 | FC Etzella Ettelbruck Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-3 | 0-6 | – | – | L |
| 23/08 | US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 16/08 | Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-0 | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 09/08 | Wiltz Luxembourg Division Nationale |
0-6 | 2-7 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Progres Niedercorn vs Swift Hesperange?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Progres Niedercorn win (80%). Probabilities: Progres Niedercorn 80%, draw 15%, Swift Hesperange 5%.
How many goals are expected in Progres Niedercorn vs Swift Hesperange?
The model expects 3.35 goals (Progres Niedercorn 2.68 · Swift Hesperange 0.68), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Progres Niedercorn vs Swift Hesperange?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.