Football · Luxembourg Division Nationale · 31/10, 18:00

Prediction: Residence Walferdange vs Wiltz

Team pages: Residence Walferdange · Wiltz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.12Total

Residence Walferdange2.27

Wiltz1.85

1X2

47% 22% 31%

Residence Walferdange Draw Wiltz

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Residence Walferdange 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWWLDL

Wiltz 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLLLD

Head-to-head

Residence Walferdange 2–0 Wiltz (2 last)

Wiltz1-2Residence Walferdange
Residence Walferdange4-3Wiltz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Residence Walferdange 1502 · Wiltz 1400

	Residence Walferdange	Draw	Wiltz
Our model	47%	21%	31%
Market	47%	22%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 4.12 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Residence Walferdange (rating 1502 vs 1400).
H2H favours Residence Walferdange: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 12.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Residence Walferdange	Wiltz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.1	1.7 / 3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.4	1 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.3	2.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.3	6.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.90

X4.00

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 4.25

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.90▲	Pinn 1.93
X	4.33 → 4.00▼	Pinn 4.29 ★
2	3.80 → 2.90▼	Pinn 3.01

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:38 +8’	1.60	4.33	3.80
15:43 +8’	1.90▲	4.00▼	2.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:38 +8’	1.97	4.23	2.92
08:17 +17’	1.96▼	4.25▲	2.94▲
10:07 +10’	1.93▼	4.29▲	3.01▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Residence Walferdange 2–0–0 Wiltz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	Wiltz	1-2	Residence Walferdange
31/10/25 Luxembourg Promotion D’Honneur	Residence Walferdange	4-3 HT 1-1	Wiltz

Standings · Luxembourg Division Nationale

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UNA Strassen	11	10	1	0	22	3	31
2	FC 03 Differdange	11	10	0	1	32	9	30
3	US Mondorf-Les-Bains	11	8	0	3	22	19	24
4	Union Luxembourg	11	6	4	1	30	11	22
5	Bissen	11	7	1	3	27	15	22
6	UN Kaerjeng	11	7	0	4	30	19	21
7	Progres Niedercorn	11	6	1	4	16	9	19
8	Residence Walferdange	11	5	1	5	20	23	16
9	F91 Dudelange	11	4	1	6	17	18	13
10	Jeunesse Esch	11	4	1	6	19	21	13
11	Victoria Rosport	11	3	2	6	21	26	11
12	US Hostert	11	3	2	6	15	20	11
13	FC Etzella Ettelbruck	11	2	2	7	9	19	8
14	Rumelange	11	2	2	7	15	31	8
15	Wiltz	11	1	2	8	18	31	5
16	Swift Hesperange	11	0	0	11	2	41	-12

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Residence Walferdange	Wiltz
Victoria Rosport	1-4 L	0-4 L
Rumelange	3-3 D	3-3 D
FC 03 Differdange	0-6 L	1-2 L
US Mondorf-Les-Bains	2-1 W	1-4 L
Swift Hesperange	3-0 W	7-2 W
UNA Strassen	0-3 L	0-2 L
Bissen	1-2 L	2-4 L
Progres Niedercorn	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 5 L	1 W 1 D 6 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Residence Walferdange

LWLWLWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-3	1-4	–	–	L
18/10	Rumelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-2	3-3	3	10	D
11/10	FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	0-6	0	3	L
16/09	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	2-1	1	8	W
13/09	Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	3-0	5	1	W
06/09	UNA Strassen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-3	0-3	–	–	L
30/08	FC Etzella Ettelbruck Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	5-0	–	–	W
23/08	Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
16/08	UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
09/08	Progres Niedercorn Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-1	–	–	L

Wiltz

WLLLLLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Rumelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-2	3-3	6	13	D
18/10	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-3	1-4	9	6	L
11/10	UNA Strassen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
16/09	Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-3	2-4	–	–	L
12/09	Progres Niedercorn Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
06/09	Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	1-5	3	8	L
30/08	F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	1-2	0	9	L
23/08	Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
15/08	FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
09/08	Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale	6-0	7-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Residence Walferdange vs Wiltz?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Residence Walferdange win (47%). Probabilities: Residence Walferdange 47%, draw 22%, Wiltz 31%.

How many goals are expected in Residence Walferdange vs Wiltz?

The model expects 4.12 goals (Residence Walferdange 2.27 · Wiltz 1.85), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Residence Walferdange vs Wiltz?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.