Football · Italy Campionato Primavera 2 · 24/10, 12:00

Prediction: Cittadella U19 vs Padova U19

Team pages: Cittadella U19 · Padova U19

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

Cittadella U191.62

Padova U191.23

1X2

46% 26% 29%

Cittadella U19 Draw Padova U19

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Cittadella U19 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDDLDLWLDW

Padova U19 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWDWWWLLL

Head-to-head

Cittadella U19 2–4 Padova U19 (6 last)

Padova U191-0Cittadella U19
Cittadella U191-0Padova U19
Cittadella U191-0Padova U19
Padova U192-0Cittadella U19
Padova U193-2Cittadella U19
Cittadella U191-3Padova U19

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cittadella U19 1479 · Padova U19 1491

	Cittadella U19	Draw	Padova U19
Our model	45%	27%	28%
Market	46%	25%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Padova U19: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cittadella U19	Padova U19
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.9	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/80/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 2.5	2.2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.60

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:07 +7’	1.95	3.60	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cittadella U19 2–0–4 Padova U19

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Padova U19	1-0 HT 0-0	Cittadella U19
08/11/25 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Cittadella U19	1-0	Padova U19
10/05/25 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Cittadella U19	1-0 HT 0-0	Padova U19
30/11/24 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Padova U19	2-0 HT 1-0	Cittadella U19
24/02/24 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Padova U19	3-2 HT 3-0	Cittadella U19
30/09/23 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	Cittadella U19	1-3 HT 0-3	Padova U19

Standings · Italy Campionato Primavera 2 · Primavera 2 26/27, Girone A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sampdoria U19	5	3	2	0	16	6	11
2	Vicenza U19	5	3	2	0	9	2	11
3	Renate U19	5	3	2	0	11	5	11
4	Cremonese U19	5	3	0	2	11	7	9
5	Virtus Entella U19	5	2	2	1	10	7	8
6	Venezia U19	5	2	1	2	9	8	7
7	Cittadella U19	5	2	1	2	11	12	7
8	Union Brescia U19	5	2	1	2	9	12	7
9	Mantova U19	5	1	3	1	7	5	6
10	Padova U19	5	2	0	3	7	10	6
11	Udinese U19	5	2	0	3	8	13	6
12	Pro Vercelli U19	5	1	2	2	5	9	5
13	Lecco U19	5	1	2	2	4	10	5
14	Modena U19	5	1	1	3	11	12	4
15	Sudtirol U19	5	0	4	1	3	6	4
16	Reggiana U19	5	0	1	4	2	9	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cittadella U19	Padova U19
Renate U19	1-1 D	1-2 L
Udinese U19	2-3 L	4-0 W
Venezia U19	2-5 L	1-0 W
Virtus Entella U19	1-2 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cittadella U19

LDDLDLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Mantova U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	–	2-1	–	–	W
10/10	Renate U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	–	1-1	–	–	D
19/09	Udinese U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	–	2-3	–	–	L
12/09	Modena U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-2	4-2	6	3	W
05/09	Venezia U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-1	2-5	1	6	L
09/05	Modena U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
02/05	Virtus Entella U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	–	1-2	–	–	L
25/04	Venezia U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
18/04	Vicenza U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	–	3-3	–	–	D
11/04	Padova U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	0-1	1	4	L

Padova U19

LDWDWWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Renate U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-1	1-2	2	0	L
10/10	Sampdoria U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-3	0-4	3	2	L
19/09	Virtus Entella U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-0	1-4	1	4	L
12/09	Reggiana U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
05/09	Udinese U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	4-0	4-0	2	4	W
23/05	Venezia U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
16/05	Venezia U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-1	1-1	13	2	D
09/05	Udinese U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	2-0	3-1	5	3	W
02/05	Reggiana U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	1-1	1-1	2	0	D
25/04	Albinoleffe U19 Italy Campionato Primavera 2	0-0	1-2	4	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cittadella U19 vs Padova U19?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cittadella U19 win (46%). Probabilities: Cittadella U19 46%, draw 26%, Padova U19 29%.

How many goals are expected in Cittadella U19 vs Padova U19?

The model expects 2.85 goals (Cittadella U19 1.62 · Padova U19 1.23), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Cittadella U19 vs Padova U19?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.