Football · Georgia First League · 24/10, 19:00

Prediction: Aragvi Dusheti vs FC Gareji

Team pages: Aragvi Dusheti · FC Gareji

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

Aragvi Dusheti1.33

FC Gareji1.24

1X2

38% 29% 33%

Aragvi Dusheti Draw FC Gareji

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Aragvi Dusheti 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWDLLLWLW

FC Gareji 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWWDLWLLW

Head-to-head

Aragvi Dusheti 1–5 FC Gareji (6 last)

FC Gareji0-2Aragvi Dusheti
Aragvi Dusheti0-1FC Gareji
FC Gareji1-0Aragvi Dusheti
Aragvi Dusheti1-3FC Gareji
FC Gareji2-0Aragvi Dusheti
Aragvi Dusheti3-5FC Gareji

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aragvi Dusheti 1482 · FC Gareji 1515

	Aragvi Dusheti	Draw	FC Gareji
Our model	38%	29%	33%
Market	38%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Gareji: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aragvi Dusheti	FC Gareji
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	1.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.2	0.8 / 2.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.3	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.10

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
14:11 +11’	2.40	3.10	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Aragvi Dusheti 1–0–5 FC Gareji

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
15/08/26 Georgia First League	FC Gareji	0-2 HT 0-2	Aragvi Dusheti
10/05/26 Georgia First League	Aragvi Dusheti	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Gareji
11/03/26 Georgia First League	FC Gareji	1-0 HT 1-0	Aragvi Dusheti
05/10/24 Georgia First League	Aragvi Dusheti	1-3 HT 1-0	FC Gareji
10/08/24 Georgia First League	FC Gareji	2-0 HT 0-0	Aragvi Dusheti
01/05/24 Georgia First League	Aragvi Dusheti	3-5 HT 1-2	FC Gareji

Standings · Georgia First League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Gareji	29	15	8	6	37	30	53
2	FC Telavi	29	12	10	7	34	28	46
3	SFC Shturmi	29	12	10	7	32	26	46
4	Merani Martvili	29	11	7	11	34	37	40
5	FC Samtredia	29	12	4	13	51	41	40
6	Aragvi Dusheti	29	11	5	13	32	41	38
7	FC Sioni Bolnisi	29	9	9	11	36	37	36
8	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	29	9	8	12	30	41	35
9	Kolkheti Poti	29	7	10	12	38	35	31
10	FC Gori	29	7	9	13	29	37	30

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aragvi Dusheti	FC Gareji
FC Samtredia	1-0 W	1-6 L
FC Telavi	1-4 L	2-1 W
FC Sioni Bolnisi	2-1 W	3-3 D
Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	0-1 L	0-1 L
Merani Martvili	1-3 L	2-1 W
SFC Shturmi	3-4 L	0-1 L
Kolkheti Poti	1-1 D	3-2 W
FC Gori	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Gareji (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aragvi Dusheti

LWWDLLLWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
10/10	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-3	1-4	6	2	L
20/09	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
16/09	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
12/09	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	0-2	1-3	8	2	L
06/09	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	0-2	3-4	3	4	L
30/08	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
22/08	FC Gori Georgia First League	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
15/08	FC Gareji Georgia First League	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
08/08	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	1-2	2-4	4	4	L

FC Gareji

DLWWDLWLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	FC Telavi Georgia First League	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
10/10	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
20/09	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
16/09	FC Gori Georgia First League	0-1	2-1	1	2	W
12/09	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	1-3	1-6	2	5	L
06/09	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	1-1	3-3	3	6	D
29/08	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	1-0	2-1	0	5	W
22/08	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	1-1	3-2	2	5	W
15/08	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
08/08	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	0	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aragvi Dusheti vs FC Gareji?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aragvi Dusheti win (38%). Probabilities: Aragvi Dusheti 38%, draw 29%, FC Gareji 33%.

How many goals are expected in Aragvi Dusheti vs FC Gareji?

The model expects 2.58 goals (Aragvi Dusheti 1.33 · FC Gareji 1.24), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Aragvi Dusheti vs FC Gareji?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.