Football · Georgia First League · 31/10, 15:00

Prediction: FC Samtredia vs SFC Shturmi

Team pages: FC Samtredia · SFC Shturmi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

FC Samtredia1.6

SFC Shturmi1.15

1X2

47% 27% 26%

FC Samtredia Draw SFC Shturmi

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Samtredia 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLWWLL

SFC Shturmi 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWDWWLW

Head-to-head

FC Samtredia 2–1–1 SFC Shturmi (4 last)

SFC Shturmi0-1FC Samtredia
FC Samtredia2-1SFC Shturmi
FC Samtredia1-1SFC Shturmi
SFC Shturmi3-2FC Samtredia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Samtredia 1533 · SFC Shturmi 1531

	FC Samtredia	Draw	SFC Shturmi
Our model	47%	27%	26%
Market	47%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Samtredia: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Samtredia	SFC Shturmi
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 0.4	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.2	0.5 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.1	2.1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.40

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:58 +17’	1.91	3.40	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Samtredia 2–1–1 SFC Shturmi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/08/26 Georgia First League	SFC Shturmi	0-1 HT 0-1	FC Samtredia
26/07/26 Georgia Cup	FC Samtredia	2-1 HT 1-1	SFC Shturmi
16/05/26 Georgia First League	FC Samtredia	1-1 HT 1-0	SFC Shturmi
15/03/26 Georgia First League	SFC Shturmi	3-2 HT 1-1	FC Samtredia

Standings · Georgia First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Gareji	30	15	9	6	37	30	54
2	SFC Shturmi	30	13	10	7	33	26	49
3	FC Telavi	30	12	11	7	35	29	47
4	Merani Martvili	30	11	7	12	34	40	40
5	FC Samtredia	30	12	4	14	51	42	40
6	Aragvi Dusheti	30	11	6	13	32	41	39
7	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	30	10	8	12	33	41	38
8	FC Sioni Bolnisi	30	9	9	12	36	38	36
9	FC Gori	30	8	9	13	30	37	33
10	Kolkheti Poti	30	7	11	12	39	36	32

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Samtredia	SFC Shturmi
FC Gori	0-1 L	1-3 L
Aragvi Dusheti	0-1 L	4-3 W
FC Sioni Bolnisi	3-0 W	1-0 W
Merani Martvili	5-0 W	1-3 L
Kolkheti Poti	0-1 L	2-0 W
FC Gareji	6-1 W	1-0 W
FC Telavi	3-0 W	1-1 D
Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	3-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Samtredia (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Samtredia

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	FC Gori Georgia First League	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
17/10	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
10/10	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
20/09	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	5-0	5-0	–	–	W
16/09	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
12/09	FC Gareji Georgia First League	3-1	6-1	8	5	W
07/09	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-0	3-0	2	10	W
28/08	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
22/08	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	1-0	1-0	7	7	W
15/08	FC Gori Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	5	3	W

SFC Shturmi

WLLWWDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	1	2	W
17/10	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
10/10	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	1-0	2-0	9	4	W
20/09	FC Gareji Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
16/09	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-0	1-1	2	6	D
12/09	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
06/09	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	2-0	4-3	4	4	W
29/08	FC Gori Georgia First League	0-0	1-3	6	3	L
22/08	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
15/08	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	1	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Samtredia vs SFC Shturmi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Samtredia win (47%). Probabilities: FC Samtredia 47%, draw 27%, SFC Shturmi 26%.

How many goals are expected in FC Samtredia vs SFC Shturmi?

The model expects 2.75 goals (FC Samtredia 1.6 · SFC Shturmi 1.15), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Samtredia vs SFC Shturmi?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.