Football · Uruguay Clausura · 31/10, 20:30
Prediction: Penarol vs Montevideo Wanderers
Team pages: Penarol · Montevideo Wanderers
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.68Total
Penarol1.86
Montevideo Wanderers0.81
1X2
Penarol
Draw
Montevideo Wanderers
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Penarol
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Montevideo Wanderers
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Penarol
5–1
Montevideo Wanderers
(6 last)
- Penarol5-1Montevideo Wanderers
- Montevideo Wanderers1-0Penarol
- Penarol3-0Montevideo Wanderers
- Penarol2-0Montevideo Wanderers
- Montevideo Wanderers1-2Penarol
- Montevideo Wanderers0-2Penarol
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Penarol 1530 · Montevideo Wanderers 1441
| Penarol | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 24% | 15% |
| Market | 62% | 22% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Penarol (rating 1530 vs 1441).
- H2H favours Penarol: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Penarol | Montevideo Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.7 | 1.1 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.1 | 1.7 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.2 | 4.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Penarol 5–0–1 Montevideo Wanderers
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/26 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Penarol | 5-1 HT 4-1 | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 27/04/26 Uruguay Apertura | Montevideo Wanderers | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Penarol |
| 19/10/25 Uruguay Clausura | Penarol | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 22/06/25 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Penarol | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 19/04/25 Uruguay Apertura | Montevideo Wanderers | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Penarol |
| 14/11/24 Uruguay Clausura | Montevideo Wanderers | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Penarol |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Nacional De Football | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud De Las Piedras | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Penarol | Montevideo Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Club Atletico Progreso | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Racing Club de Montevideo | 1-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Torque | 1-1 D | 1-5 L |
| Boston River | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Cerro | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Albion FC | 3-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Danubio | 4-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Nacional De Football | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 1 L | 2 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Penarol (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Penarol
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 18/10 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 10 | L |
| 10/10 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 05/10 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 01/10 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 26/09 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 19/09 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 14/09 | Albion FC Uruguay Clausura |
2-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 30/08 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
Montevideo Wanderers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 17/10 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 10/10 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 04/10 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 29/09 | Albion FC Uruguay Clausura |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 20/09 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 12/09 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 05/09 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 23/08 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
0-2 | 1-5 | 7 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Penarol vs Montevideo Wanderers?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Penarol win (62%). Probabilities: Penarol 62%, draw 23%, Montevideo Wanderers 15%.
How many goals are expected in Penarol vs Montevideo Wanderers?
The model expects 2.68 goals (Penarol 1.86 · Montevideo Wanderers 0.81), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Penarol vs Montevideo Wanderers?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.