Football · Uruguay Clausura · 03/11, 00:00

Prediction: Liverpool Montevideo vs Juventud De Las Piedras

Team pages: Liverpool Montevideo · Juventud De Las Piedras

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.05Total

Liverpool Montevideo1.2

Juventud De Las Piedras0.84

1X2

44% 30% 26%

Liverpool Montevideo Draw Juventud De Las Piedras

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Liverpool Montevideo 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWLDWWDWW

Juventud De Las Piedras 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WWDDWDDWLD

Head-to-head

Liverpool Montevideo 1–2–3 Juventud De Las Piedras (6 last)

Juventud De Las Piedras1-1Liverpool Montevideo
Liverpool Montevideo0-1Juventud De Las Piedras
Juventud De Las Piedras1-0Liverpool Montevideo
Juventud De Las Piedras0-0Liverpool Montevideo
Liverpool Montevideo2-1Juventud De Las Piedras
Juventud De Las Piedras2-1Liverpool Montevideo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Liverpool Montevideo 1576 · Juventud De Las Piedras 1562

	Liverpool Montevideo	Draw	Juventud De Las Piedras
Our model	43%	32%	25%
Market	45%	28%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Juventud De Las Piedras: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Liverpool Montevideo	Juventud De Las Piedras
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.8	1.9 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.3 / 0.4	4.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.20

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.02

2 (+0.5)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.50
2	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.80 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.8% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:25 +3’	1.95	3.20	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:27 +1’	1.94	3.50	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Liverpool Montevideo 1–2–3 Juventud De Las Piedras

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Uruguay Apertura	Juventud De Las Piedras	1-1 HT 1-0	Liverpool Montevideo
01/11/25 Uruguay Clausura	Liverpool Montevideo	0-1 HT 0-0	Juventud De Las Piedras
04/05/25 Uruguay Apertura	Juventud De Las Piedras	1-0 HT 1-0	Liverpool Montevideo
20/10/19 Uruguay Clausura	Juventud De Las Piedras	0-0 HT 0-0	Liverpool Montevideo
30/03/19 Uruguay Apertura	Liverpool Montevideo	2-1 HT 1-0	Juventud De Las Piedras
22/11/17 Uruguay Clausura	Juventud De Las Piedras	2-1 HT 1-0	Liverpool Montevideo

Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Montevideo Wanderers	7	4	3	0	12	4	15
2	Nacional De Football	7	4	1	2	8	8	13
3	Deportivo Maldonado	7	3	3	1	12	6	12
4	Torque	7	4	0	3	11	11	12
5	Juventud De Las Piedras	7	2	2	3	8	11	8
6	Albion FC	7	1	3	3	6	8	6
7	Club Atletico Progreso	7	2	0	5	6	11	6
8	Danubio	7	0	4	3	5	9	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Liverpool Montevideo	Juventud De Las Piedras
Nacional De Football	1-0 W	2-2 D
Penarol	1-0 W	0-0 D
Deportivo Maldonado	1-1 D	2-0 W
Club Atletico Progreso	3-2 W	0-2 L
Central Espanol	2-1 W	1-0 W
Racing Club de Montevideo	0-0 D	2-0 W
Boston River	1-0 W	0-0 D
Cerro	4-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	6 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Liverpool Montevideo (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Liverpool Montevideo

WDWLDWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura	1-0	1-0	4	9	W
18/10	Penarol Uruguay Clausura	0-0	1-0	5	10	W
10/10	Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
03/10	Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura	1-0	3-2	3	8	W
27/09	Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
21/09	Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
15/09	Torque Uruguay Clausura	0-2	1-3	8	10	L
07/09	Boston River Uruguay Clausura	0-0	1-0	7	6	W
31/08	Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
22/08	Cerro Uruguay Clausura	0-0	4-0	13	5	W

Juventud De Las Piedras

WWDDWDDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Penarol Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
17/10	Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-2	10	3	L
11/10	Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura	2-0	2-0	2	9	W
04/10	Boston River Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
27/09	Cerro Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
20/09	Albion FC Uruguay Clausura	2-0	3-1	5	3	W
13/09	Danubio Uruguay Clausura	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
06/09	Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
29/08	Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
22/08	Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura	0-0	1-0	3	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Liverpool Montevideo vs Juventud De Las Piedras?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Liverpool Montevideo win (44%). Probabilities: Liverpool Montevideo 44%, draw 30%, Juventud De Las Piedras 26%.

How many goals are expected in Liverpool Montevideo vs Juventud De Las Piedras?

The model expects 2.05 goals (Liverpool Montevideo 1.2 · Juventud De Las Piedras 0.84), with a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Liverpool Montevideo vs Juventud De Las Piedras?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.