Football · Uruguay Clausura · 01/11, 20:30
Prediction: Danubio vs Nacional De Football
Team pages: Danubio · Nacional De Football
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.19Total
Danubio0.78
Nacional De Football1.42
1X2
Danubio
Draw
Nacional De Football
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 57%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
0-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Danubio
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Nacional De Football
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Danubio
1–3–2
Nacional De Football
(6 last)
- Danubio0-0Nacional De Football
- Nacional De Football1-2Danubio
- Danubio0-0Nacional De Football
- Nacional De Football3-2Danubio
- Nacional De Football2-0Danubio
- Danubio0-0Nacional De Football
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Danubio 1491 · Nacional De Football 1578
| Danubio | Draw | Nacional De Football | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 19% | 30% | 51% |
| Market | 21% | 26% | 53% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nacional De Football (rating 1491 vs 1578).
- H2H favours Nacional De Football: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Danubio | Nacional De Football | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.2 | 1.6 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.3 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.3 | 2.8 / 6.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0 | 6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Danubio 1–3–2 Nacional De Football
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/26 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Danubio | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Nacional De Football |
| 26/04/26 Uruguay Apertura | Nacional De Football | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Danubio |
| 12/10/25 Uruguay Clausura | Danubio | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Nacional De Football |
| 29/06/25 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Nacional De Football | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Danubio |
| 13/04/25 Uruguay Apertura | Nacional De Football | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Danubio |
| 28/11/24 Uruguay Clausura | Danubio | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Nacional De Football |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Nacional De Football | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud De Las Piedras | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Danubio | Nacional De Football |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Maldonado | 1-2 L | 3-2 W |
| Central Espanol | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Torque | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Cerro Largo | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Defensor Sporting | 0-1 L | 3-2 W |
| Montevideo Wanderers | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Juventud De Las Piedras | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Penarol | 0-4 L | 1-0 W |
| Club Atletico Progreso | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 5 L | 7 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Nacional De Football (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Danubio
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 18/10 | Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 09/10 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 04/10 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 27/09 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 20/09 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 05/09 | Penarol Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-4 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 29/08 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 23/08 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 5 | D |
Nacional De Football
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 20/10 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 3-2 | 8 | 7 | W |
| 11/10 | Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 06/10 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 26/09 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 20/09 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 3-2 | 13 | 7 | W |
| 12/09 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 06/09 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | Penarol Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 13 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Danubio vs Nacional De Football?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Nacional De Football win (52%). Probabilities: Danubio 21%, draw 28%, Nacional De Football 52%.
How many goals are expected in Danubio vs Nacional De Football?
The model expects 2.19 goals (Danubio 0.78 · Nacional De Football 1.42), with a 57% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Danubio vs Nacional De Football?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.