Football · Uruguay Clausura · 01/11, 14:00
Prediction: Club Atletico Progreso vs Defensor Sporting
Team pages: Club Atletico Progreso · Defensor Sporting
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.3Total
Club Atletico Progreso1.14
Defensor Sporting1.16
1X2
Club Atletico Progreso
Draw
Defensor Sporting
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Club Atletico Progreso
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Defensor Sporting
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Club Atletico Progreso
1–2–3
Defensor Sporting
(6 last)
- Defensor Sporting1-0Club Atletico Progreso
- Defensor Sporting0-0Club Atletico Progreso
- Club Atletico Progreso2-3Defensor Sporting
- Defensor Sporting1-2Club Atletico Progreso
- Defensor Sporting3-0Club Atletico Progreso
- Defensor Sporting1-1Club Atletico Progreso
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Club Atletico Progreso 1518 · Defensor Sporting 1450
| Club Atletico Progreso | Draw | Defensor Sporting | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 31% | 35% |
| Market | 35% | 29% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club Atletico Progreso (rating 1518 vs 1450).
- H2H favours Defensor Sporting: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Club Atletico Progreso | Defensor Sporting | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1 | 1.4 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.3 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 3.7 | 1.8 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.2 | 5.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Atletico Progreso 1–2–3 Defensor Sporting
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/04/26 Uruguay Apertura | Defensor Sporting | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Club Atletico Progreso |
| 12/01/26 Uruguay Copa de la Liga | Defensor Sporting | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Club Atletico Progreso |
| 19/10/25 Uruguay Clausura | Club Atletico Progreso | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Defensor Sporting |
| 21/04/25 Uruguay Apertura | Defensor Sporting | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Club Atletico Progreso |
| 14/11/24 Uruguay Clausura | Defensor Sporting | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Club Atletico Progreso |
| 16/06/24 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Defensor Sporting | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Club Atletico Progreso |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Nacional De Football | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud De Las Piedras | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Club Atletico Progreso | Defensor Sporting |
|---|---|---|
| Racing Club de Montevideo | 2-1 W | 3-3 D |
| Boston River | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Cerro | 1-3 L | 2-3 L |
| Albion FC | 1-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Danubio | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Nacional De Football | 0-1 L | 2-3 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Club Atletico Progreso (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Club Atletico Progreso
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 17/10 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 10/10 | Penarol Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 03/10 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 26/09 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 19/09 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 07/09 | Albion FC Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 23/08 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 8 | L |
Defensor Sporting
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
2-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 17/10 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 10/10 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 13 | L |
| 03/10 | Albion FC Uruguay Clausura |
0-2 | 2-3 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 27/09 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 20/09 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 13/09 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 29/08 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Club Atletico Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Defensor Sporting win (36%). Probabilities: Club Atletico Progreso 34%, draw 30%, Defensor Sporting 36%.
How many goals are expected in Club Atletico Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?
The model expects 2.3 goals (Club Atletico Progreso 1.14 · Defensor Sporting 1.16), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Club Atletico Progreso vs Defensor Sporting?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.