Football · Uruguay Clausura · 31/10, 14:00
Prediction: Racing Club de Montevideo vs Cerro Largo
Team pages: Racing Club de Montevideo · Cerro Largo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.98Total
Racing Club de Montevideo1.31
Cerro Largo0.67
1X2
Racing Club de Montevideo
Draw
Cerro Largo
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 60%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0 17%
Recent form · 10 last
Racing Club de Montevideo
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Cerro Largo
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Racing Club de Montevideo
3–3–0
Cerro Largo
(6 last)
- Racing Club de Montevideo1-0Cerro Largo
- Cerro Largo0-1Racing Club de Montevideo
- Cerro Largo2-2Racing Club de Montevideo
- Racing Club de Montevideo1-1Cerro Largo
- Racing Club de Montevideo0-0Cerro Largo
- Cerro Largo0-2Racing Club de Montevideo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Racing Club de Montevideo 1482 · Cerro Largo 1438
| Racing Club de Montevideo | Draw | Cerro Largo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 31% | 18% |
| Market | 53% | 27% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Racing Club de Montevideo (rating 1482 vs 1438).
- H2H favours Racing Club de Montevideo: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Racing Club de Montevideo | Cerro Largo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.1 | 0.7 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.6 | 0.2 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.1 | 1.9 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 0.3 | 5.1 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Racing Club de Montevideo 3–3–0 Cerro Largo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Racing Club de Montevideo | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Cerro Largo |
| 26/04/26 Uruguay Apertura | Cerro Largo | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Racing Club de Montevideo |
| 25/10/25 Uruguay Clausura | Cerro Largo | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Racing Club de Montevideo |
| 28/04/25 Uruguay Apertura | Racing Club de Montevideo | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Cerro Largo |
| 05/10/24 Uruguay Clausura | Racing Club de Montevideo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Cerro Largo |
| 29/03/24 Uruguay Apertura | Cerro Largo | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Racing Club de Montevideo |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 16 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Racing Club de Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Liverpool Montevideo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Central Espanol | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 9 |
| 6 | Cerro | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 9 |
| 7 | Defensor Sporting | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 6 |
| 8 | Boston River | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 5 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Racing Club de Montevideo | Cerro Largo |
|---|---|---|
| Defensor Sporting | 3-3 D | 1-1 D |
| Liverpool Montevideo | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Boston River | 3-2 W | 2-0 W |
| Cerro | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Albion FC | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Danubio | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 1 L | 1 W 3 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Racing Club de Montevideo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura |
1-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 17/10 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 11/10 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 05/10 | Penarol Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 26/09 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 21/09 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 31/08 | Albion FC Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 23/08 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
Cerro Largo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 17/10 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 11/10 | Albion FC Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 04/10 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 26/09 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 19/09 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 13/09 | Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 05/09 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 31/08 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Racing Club de Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Racing Club de Montevideo win (52%). Probabilities: Racing Club de Montevideo 52%, draw 29%, Cerro Largo 19%.
How many goals are expected in Racing Club de Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?
The model expects 1.98 goals (Racing Club de Montevideo 1.31 · Cerro Largo 0.67), with a 57% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Racing Club de Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.