Football · Armenia Premier League · 07/11, 12:00

Prediction: Sardarapat FC vs Ararat Yerevan

Team pages: Sardarapat FC · Ararat Yerevan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Sardarapat FC1.64

Ararat Yerevan1.23

1X2

46% 26% 28%

Sardarapat FC Draw Ararat Yerevan

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Sardarapat FC 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLDDLWDD

Ararat Yerevan 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWDDLL

Head-to-head

Sardarapat FC 1–1 Ararat Yerevan (2 last)

Ararat Yerevan1-2Sardarapat FC
Sardarapat FC0-3Ararat Yerevan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sardarapat FC 1489 · Ararat Yerevan 1451

	Sardarapat FC	Draw	Ararat Yerevan
Our model	46%	27%	28%
Market	46%	26%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sardarapat FC	Ararat Yerevan
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.8	0.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.8	1.4 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.7	4.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.50

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:08 +6’	1.95	3.50	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sardarapat FC 1–0–1 Ararat Yerevan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/08/26 Armenia Premier League	Ararat Yerevan	1-2 HT 0-2	Sardarapat FC
30/10/25 Armenian Cup	Sardarapat FC	0-3 HT 0-0	Ararat Yerevan

Standings · Armenia Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Noah	12	10	1	1	31	10	31
2	Ararat Armenia	12	9	2	1	24	10	29
3	Pyunik Yerevan	12	8	4	0	28	9	28
4	Alashkert FC	12	7	4	1	27	8	25
5	Sardarapat FC	12	4	5	3	19	20	17
6	FC Urartu	12	4	4	4	19	15	16
7	Shirak	12	4	2	6	14	15	14
8	Ararat Yerevan	12	3	2	7	10	20	11
9	FC Van	12	3	2	7	12	29	11
10	BKMA FC	12	2	2	8	10	22	8
11	Syunik	12	2	2	8	11	26	8
12	Gandzasar Kapan	12	1	0	11	9	30	3

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sardarapat FC	Ararat Yerevan
FC Van	2-2 D	1-2 L
FC Urartu	0-0 D	2-2 D
Gandzasar Kapan	2-1 W	2-0 W
FC Noah	1-5 L	0-4 L
BKMA FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Alashkert FC	1-1 D	0-2 L
Pyunik Yerevan	2-4 L	0-2 L
Shirak	0-2 L	1-1 D
Syunik	3-1 W	1-0 W
Ararat Armenia	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 5 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Sardarapat FC (4 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sardarapat FC

DWLLDDLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	FC Van Armenia Premier League	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
22/10	FC Urartu Armenia Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
16/10	Gandzasar Kapan Armenia Premier League	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
11/10	FC Noah Armenia Premier League	0-3	1-5	8	3	L
19/09	BKMA FC Armenia Premier League	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
13/09	Alashkert FC Armenia Premier League	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
09/09	Pyunik Yerevan Armenia Premier League	1-1	2-4	2	1	L
06/09	Shirak Armenia Premier League	0-1	0-2	11	6	L
31/08	Syunik Armenia Premier League	0-0	3-1	4	7	W
23/08	Ararat Armenia Armenia Premier League	1-1	1-1	–	–	D

Ararat Yerevan

WLLLWWDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Alashkert FC Armenia Premier League	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
23/10	FC Van Armenia Premier League	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
17/10	Shirak Armenia Premier League	1-0	1-1	1	9	D
11/10	FC Urartu Armenia Premier League	1-1	2-2	6	1	D
20/09	Syunik Armenia Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
12/09	Gandzasar Kapan Armenia Premier League	1-0	2-0	7	5	W
05/09	Ararat Armenia Armenia Premier League	0-0	0-1	0	5	L
30/08	FC Noah Armenia Premier League	0-3	0-4	1	5	L
21/08	Pyunik Yerevan Armenia Premier League	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
15/08	BKMA FC Armenia Premier League	1-1	2-1	8	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sardarapat FC vs Ararat Yerevan?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sardarapat FC win (46%). Probabilities: Sardarapat FC 46%, draw 26%, Ararat Yerevan 28%.

How many goals are expected in Sardarapat FC vs Ararat Yerevan?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Sardarapat FC 1.64 · Ararat Yerevan 1.23), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sardarapat FC vs Ararat Yerevan?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.