Football · Armenia Premier League · 06/11, 16:00

Prediction: BKMA FC vs Alashkert FC

Team pages: BKMA FC · Alashkert FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

BKMA FC0.69

Alashkert FC2.24

1X2

10% 18% 73%

BKMA FC Draw Alashkert FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

0-2 13%

Recent form · 10 last

BKMA FC 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWWLDLLLL

Alashkert FC 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

LWDWDDDWWW

Head-to-head

BKMA FC 1–1–4 Alashkert FC (6 last)

Alashkert FC4-0BKMA FC
Alashkert FC3-0BKMA FC
BKMA FC2-2Alashkert FC
Alashkert FC2-0BKMA FC
BKMA FC1-3Alashkert FC
BKMA FC2-0Alashkert FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BKMA FC 1413 · Alashkert FC 1585

	BKMA FC	Draw	Alashkert FC
Our model	9%	19%	72%
Market	11%	16%	73%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alashkert FC (rating 1413 vs 1585).
H2H favours Alashkert FC: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	BKMA FC	Alashkert FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.9	2.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3	3.4 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.5	4.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

18.50

X5.50

21.22

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.98

2 (-1.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:59 +11’	8.50	5.50	1.22

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · BKMA FC 1–1–4 Alashkert FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/10/26 Armenian Cup	Alashkert FC	4-0 HT 3-0	BKMA FC
10/08/26 Armenia Premier League	Alashkert FC	3-0 HT 2-0	BKMA FC
02/05/26 Armenia Premier League	BKMA FC	2-2 HT 0-1	Alashkert FC
08/11/25 Armenia Premier League	Alashkert FC	2-0 HT 0-0	BKMA FC
13/09/25 Armenia Premier League	BKMA FC	1-3 HT 0-2	Alashkert FC
22/05/25 Armenia Premier League	BKMA FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Alashkert FC

Standings · Armenia Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Noah	12	10	1	1	31	10	31
2	Ararat Armenia	12	9	2	1	24	10	29
3	Pyunik Yerevan	12	8	4	0	28	9	28
4	Alashkert FC	12	7	4	1	27	8	25
5	Sardarapat FC	12	4	5	3	19	20	17
6	FC Urartu	12	4	4	4	19	15	16
7	Shirak	12	4	2	6	14	15	14
8	Ararat Yerevan	12	3	2	7	10	20	11
9	FC Van	12	3	2	7	12	29	11
10	BKMA FC	12	2	2	8	10	22	8
11	Syunik	12	2	2	8	11	26	8
12	Gandzasar Kapan	12	1	0	11	9	30	3

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	BKMA FC	Alashkert FC
Shirak	1-2 L	1-0 W
Syunik	1-4 L	5-1 W
Ararat Armenia	0-1 L	1-1 D
Pyunik Yerevan	0-5 L	3-3 D
Sardarapat FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
FC Van	1-2 L	4-0 W
FC Urartu	2-1 W	1-1 D
Gandzasar Kapan	3-0 W	3-0 W
FC Noah	0-1 L	0-1 L
Ararat Yerevan	1-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 7 L	5 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Alashkert FC (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

BKMA FC

LLWWLDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Shirak Armenia Premier League	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
25/10	Syunik Armenia Premier League	1-0	1-4	4	5	L
18/10	Ararat Armenia Armenia Premier League	0-1	0-1	1	6	L
12/10	Pyunik Yerevan Armenia Premier League	0-3	0-5	2	3	L
19/09	Sardarapat FC Armenia Premier League	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
11/09	FC Van Armenia Premier League	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
06/09	FC Urartu Armenia Premier League	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
30/08	Gandzasar Kapan Armenia Premier League	0-0	3-0	2	4	W
23/08	FC Noah Armenia Premier League	0-0	0-1	1	2	L
15/08	Ararat Yerevan Armenia Premier League	1-1	1-2	4	2	L

Alashkert FC

LWDWDDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Ararat Yerevan Armenia Premier League	0-0	2-0	8	5	W
24/10	Shirak Armenia Premier League	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
16/10	Syunik Armenia Premier League	3-0	5-1	9	6	W
10/10	Ararat Armenia Armenia Premier League	1-1	1-1	2	7	D
19/09	Pyunik Yerevan Armenia Premier League	1-2	3-3	6	6	D
13/09	Sardarapat FC Armenia Premier League	0-1	1-1	11	2	D
03/09	FC Van Armenia Premier League	2-0	4-0	6	3	W
28/08	FC Urartu Armenia Premier League	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
21/08	Gandzasar Kapan Armenia Premier League	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
17/08	FC Noah Armenia Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in BKMA FC vs Alashkert FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Alashkert FC win (73%). Probabilities: BKMA FC 10%, draw 18%, Alashkert FC 73%.

How many goals are expected in BKMA FC vs Alashkert FC?

The model expects 2.93 goals (BKMA FC 0.69 · Alashkert FC 2.24), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in BKMA FC vs Alashkert FC?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.