Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 31/10, 21:00

Prediction: Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Ameliano

Team pages: Deportivo Recoleta · Sportivo Ameliano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Deportivo Recoleta1.31

Sportivo Ameliano1.4

1X2

34% 28% 38%

Deportivo Recoleta Draw Sportivo Ameliano

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Recoleta 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Sportivo Ameliano 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Deportivo Recoleta 3–1–2 Sportivo Ameliano (6 last)

Sportivo Ameliano3-1Deportivo Recoleta
Sportivo Ameliano3-2Deportivo Recoleta
Deportivo Recoleta1-1Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano1-4Deportivo Recoleta
Deportivo Recoleta3-1Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano1-2Deportivo Recoleta

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Recoleta 1447 · Sportivo Ameliano 1489

	Deportivo Recoleta	Draw	Sportivo Ameliano
Our model	34%	28%	38%
Market	34%	28%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sportivo Ameliano (rating 1447 vs 1489).
H2H favours Deportivo Recoleta: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Recoleta	Sportivo Ameliano
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.5	1.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/70/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.1	1.9 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.6	4 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.25

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.82 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.39
2	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.44

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.5% Pinnacle margin 5.9%

Time*	1	X	2
08:04 +13’	2.70	3.25	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:08 +15’	2.64	3.28	2.55
14:01 +18’	2.66▲	3.32▲	2.57▲
16:14 +7’	2.88▲	3.32	2.40▼
02:12 +10’	2.84▼	3.31▼	2.44▲
13:36 +44’	2.80▼	3.37▲	2.43▼
21:55 +48’	2.82▲	3.39▲	2.44▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Recoleta 3–1–2 Sportivo Ameliano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/08/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Ameliano	3-1 HT 1-1	Deportivo Recoleta
11/05/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Ameliano	3-2 HT 2-1	Deportivo Recoleta
10/03/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Deportivo Recoleta	1-1 HT 0-0	Sportivo Ameliano
29/09/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Ameliano	1-4 HT 0-2	Deportivo Recoleta
21/07/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Deportivo Recoleta	3-1 HT 0-1	Sportivo Ameliano
11/05/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Ameliano	1-2 HT 0-1	Deportivo Recoleta

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Recoleta	Sportivo Ameliano
2 de Mayo	1-1 D	0-1 L
Rubio Nu	1-0 W	1-2 L
Nacional Asuncion	0-1 L	1-1 D
Libertad Asuncion	1-2 L	1-1 D
Sportivo San Lorenzo	0-0 D	1-0 W
Sportivo Luqueno	0-1 L	2-1 W
Sportivo Trinidense	1-3 L	0-3 L
Guarani Asuncion	0-2 L	1-1 D
Cerro Porteno	1-3 L	2-2 D
Olimpia Asuncion	1-2 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 7 L	2 W 4 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Sportivo Ameliano (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Recoleta

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
17/10	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
13/10	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	7	6	L
05/10	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-2	11	4	L
28/09	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
20/09	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	10	4	L
12/09	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-3	1	7	L
07/09	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
03/09	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-3	1-3	6	2	L
29/08	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-2	1-2	4	5	L

Sportivo Ameliano

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-3	4	6	L
18/10	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	2-2	1	4	D
12/10	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
06/10	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-2	6	7	L
26/09	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
19/09	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-1	1	7	D
11/09	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
06/09	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
02/09	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-3	6	4	L
30/08	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	5	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Ameliano?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sportivo Ameliano win (38%). Probabilities: Deportivo Recoleta 34%, draw 28%, Sportivo Ameliano 38%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Ameliano?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Deportivo Recoleta 1.31 · Sportivo Ameliano 1.4), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Recoleta vs Sportivo Ameliano?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.