Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 25/10, 15:00

Prediction: Catania vs Giugliano

Team pages: Catania · Giugliano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

Catania2.26

Giugliano0.91

1X2

67% 21% 12%

Catania Draw Giugliano

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Catania 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLWDWWWL

Giugliano 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLWLWLLW

Head-to-head

Catania 4–2 Giugliano (6 last)

Catania1-0Giugliano
Giugliano0-3Catania
Catania3-2Giugliano
Catania3-1Giugliano
Giugliano3-2Catania
Catania2-3Giugliano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Catania 1509 · Giugliano 1453

	Catania	Draw	Giugliano
Our model	67%	20%	13%
Market	66%	22%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Catania (rating 1509 vs 1453).
H2H favours Catania: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Catania	Giugliano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.2	1.5 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.6	1.1 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.20

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.82

2 (+1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.66 ★
2	7.50 → 7.50	Pinn 8.27

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:54 +34’	1.36	4.20	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:27 +51’	1.33	4.78	8.70
12:37 +50’	1.35▲	4.66▼	8.27▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Catania 4–0–2 Giugliano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Italy Serie C Group C	Catania	1-0 HT 0-0	Giugliano
11/10/25 Italy Serie C Group C	Giugliano	0-3 HT 0-2	Catania
04/05/25 Italy Serie C Play-Offs	Catania	3-2 HT 1-1	Giugliano
26/01/25 Italy Serie C Group C	Catania	3-1 HT 2-1	Giugliano
22/09/24 Italy Serie C Group C	Giugliano	3-2 HT 1-0	Catania
28/03/24 Italy Serie C Group C	Catania	2-3 HT 1-0	Giugliano

Standings · Italy Serie C Group C

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Potenza	10	8	1	1	26	13	25
2	Bari	10	6	2	2	13	6	20
3	Sorrento Calcio	10	6	1	3	14	10	19
4	Audace Cerignola	10	5	2	3	18	9	17
5	Catania	10	5	1	4	18	12	16
6	Casertana	10	4	4	2	15	13	16
7	Cavese	10	4	3	3	20	17	15
8	Monopoli	10	4	3	3	11	9	15
9	Scafatese	9	3	5	1	15	13	14
10	Salernitana	10	3	5	2	14	12	14
11	Inter Milan U23	9	4	1	4	18	17	13
12	AZ Picerno ASD	10	4	0	6	17	18	12
13	Barletta	10	2	5	3	13	15	11
14	Foggia	10	3	2	5	10	13	11
15	Casarano	10	3	2	5	12	18	11
16	Team Altamura	10	3	2	5	7	14	11
17	AC Savoia 1908	10	2	4	4	11	16	10
18	Giugliano	10	3	1	6	15	23	10
19	Cosenza	10	1	2	7	8	22	5
20	Crotone	10	1	4	5	10	15	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Catania	Giugliano
Barletta	0-0 D	1-0 W
Scafatese	1-2 L	3-3 D
Cosenza	4-0 W	5-2 W
Inter Milan U23	1-2 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Catania

LLWLWDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Potenza Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-2	4	9	L
11/10	Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	3-0	7	2	W
03/10	Crotone Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	2-1	8	3	W
27/09	Casertana Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	2-1	8	5	W
19/09	Barletta Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
15/09	AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C	3-0	4-2	4	3	W
12/09	Scafatese Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	1-2	7	7	L
07/09	Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	4-0	3	4	W
29/08	Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
23/08	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C	0-2	1-2	8	3	L

Giugliano

DLLLWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Foggia Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	3-1	4	3	W
13/10	Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C	0-0	0-4	4	4	L
10/10	Bari Italy Serie C Group C	0-2	0-2	1	4	L
03/10	Barletta Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
19/09	Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
15/09	Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C	2-1	5-2	1	7	W
11/09	Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C	0-2	0-4	4	6	L
05/09	Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
28/08	Casarano Italy Serie C Group C	1-1	3-4	1	4	L
21/08	Scafatese Italy Serie C Group C	1-0	3-3	7	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Catania vs Giugliano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Catania win (67%). Probabilities: Catania 67%, draw 21%, Giugliano 12%.

How many goals are expected in Catania vs Giugliano?

The model expects 3.17 goals (Catania 2.26 · Giugliano 0.91), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Catania vs Giugliano?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.