Football · Italy Serie C Group C · 01/11, 17:30
Prediction: Potenza vs Crotone
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.23Total
Potenza2.22
Crotone1.01
1X2
Potenza
Draw
Crotone
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
2-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Potenza
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Crotone
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Potenza
1–3–2
Crotone
(6 last)
- Crotone2-0Potenza
- Potenza3-1Crotone
- Potenza3-3Crotone
- Crotone4-1Potenza
- Potenza3-3Crotone
- Potenza2-2Crotone
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Potenza 1585 · Crotone 1452
| Potenza | Draw | Crotone | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| Market | 63% | 23% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Potenza (rating 1585 vs 1452).
- H2H favours Crotone: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Potenza | Crotone | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1.4 | 1 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.4 | 1.5 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.2 | 4.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Potenza 1–3–2 Crotone
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/26 Italy Serie C Group C | Crotone | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Potenza |
| 10/12/25 Italy Serie C Cup | Potenza | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Crotone |
| 12/09/25 Italy Serie C Group C | Potenza | 3-3 HT 1-2 | Crotone |
| 08/02/25 Italy Serie C Group C | Crotone | 4-1 HT 1-0 | Potenza |
| 29/09/24 Italy Serie C Group C | Potenza | 3-3 HT 1-2 | Crotone |
| 30/03/24 Italy Serie C Group C | Potenza | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Crotone |
Standings · Italy Serie C Group C
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Potenza | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 28 | 15 | 26 |
| 2 | Bari | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 7 | 21 |
| 3 | Sorrento Calcio | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 20 |
| 4 | Catania | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 12 | 19 |
| 5 | Monopoli | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 18 |
| 6 | Audace Cerignola | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 11 | 17 |
| 7 | Inter Milan U23 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 19 | 17 |
| 8 | Scafatese | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 15 | 17 |
| 9 | Casertana | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 16 | 14 | 17 |
| 10 | AZ Picerno ASD | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 20 | 18 | 15 |
| 10 | Cavese | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 18 | 15 |
| 12 | Salernitana | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 15 | 14 |
| 13 | Foggia | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 13 | 14 |
| 14 | Casarano | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 14 |
| 15 | Team Altamura | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 12 |
| 16 | Barletta | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 13 | 16 | 11 |
| 17 | AC Savoia 1908 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 11 |
| 18 | Giugliano | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 | 29 | 10 |
| 19 | Cosenza | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 23 | 6 |
| 20 | Crotone | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 1 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Potenza | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| Catania | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Barletta | 4-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Bari | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Salernitana | 2-4 L | 2-1 W |
| Monopoli | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 3 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Potenza (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Potenza
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Team Altamura Italy Serie C Group C |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 17/10 | Catania Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 11/10 | Foggia Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 04/10 | AZ Picerno ASD Italy Serie C Group C |
2-1 | 4-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 27/09 | Barletta Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | Cavese Italy Serie C Group C |
2-0 | 4-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 15/09 | Bari Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 11/09 | Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C |
1-3 | 2-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 05/09 | Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Cosenza Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
Crotone
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10 | Casarano Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 18/10 | Bari Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 10/10 | Audace Cerignola Italy Serie C Group C |
1-3 | 2-3 | 8 | 9 | L |
| 03/10 | Catania Italy Serie C Group C |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 26/09 | Salernitana Italy Serie C Group C |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 20/09 | Monopoli Italy Serie C Group C |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 15/09 | Inter Milan U23 Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | AC Savoia 1908 Italy Serie C Group C |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 05/09 | Barletta Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 29/08 | Sorrento Calcio Italy Serie C Group C |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Potenza vs Crotone?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Potenza win (63%). Probabilities: Potenza 63%, draw 22%, Crotone 15%.
How many goals are expected in Potenza vs Crotone?
The model expects 3.23 goals (Potenza 2.22 · Crotone 1.01), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Potenza vs Crotone?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.