Prediction: Mathare United vs Tusker
Team pages: Mathare United · Tusker
- Mathare United3-1Tusker
- Tusker0-0Mathare United
- Mathare United2-1Tusker
- Tusker2-0Mathare United
- Mathare United0-2Tusker
- Tusker2-1Mathare United
| Mathare United | Draw | Tusker | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 35% | 33% |
| Market | 33% | 32% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Tusker: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mathare United | Tusker | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 0.1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 22/56/22% | 13/63/25% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.4 | 2.4 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0.1 | 4.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mathare United 2–1–3 Tusker
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 Kenya Premier League | Mathare United | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Tusker |
| 01/10/25 Kenya Premier League | Tusker | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Mathare United |
| 27/04/25 Kenya Premier League | Mathare United | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Tusker |
| 07/12/24 Kenya Premier League | Tusker | 2-0 | Mathare United |
| 12/04/23 Kenya Premier League | Mathare United | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Tusker |
| 18/02/23 Kenya Premier League | Tusker | 2-1 | Mathare United |
Standings · Kenya Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gor Mahia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | 3K FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 3 | Mara Sugar FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| 4 | AFC Leopards | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 5 | Shabana FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Kakamega Homeboyz | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | KCB | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 8 | Tusker | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Muranga Seal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 3 |
| 10 | Nairobi United | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 11 | Posta Rangers | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
| 12 | Migori Youth | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | Administration Police FC | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 14 | APS Bomet | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 14 | Bandari FC | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 16 | Mathare United | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 17 | Ulinzi Stars | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| 18 | Mombasa United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Mathare United | Tusker |
|---|---|---|
| APS Bomet | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Bandari FC | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Ulinzi Stars | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Mara Sugar FC | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Sofapaka FC | 2-2 D | 0-0 D |
| Nairobi United | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Bidco United | 3-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Mathare United (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mathare United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Migori Youth Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 17/10 | KCB Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 10/10 | APS Bomet Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 31/05 | Bandari FC Kenya Premier League |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Ulinzi Stars Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 16/05 | Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | APS Bomet Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Sofapaka FC Kenya Premier League |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 25/04 | Nairobi United Kenya Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 18/04 | Bidco United Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
Tusker
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Ulinzi Stars Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 31/05 | APS Bomet Kenya Premier League |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 27/05 | Ulinzi Stars Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Bandari FC Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Bidco United Kenya Premier League |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 06/05 | Nairobi United Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 24/04 | Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Sofapaka FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 14/04 | Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 03/04 | Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mathare United vs Tusker?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Tusker win (34%). Probabilities: Mathare United 33%, draw 34%, Tusker 34%.
How many goals are expected in Mathare United vs Tusker?
The model expects 1.82 goals (Mathare United 0.9 · Tusker 0.92), with a 52% chance of under 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Mathare United vs Tusker?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.