Football · Kenya Premier League · 28/10, 12:00
Prediction: Kakamega Homeboyz vs Gor Mahia
Team pages: Kakamega Homeboyz · Gor Mahia
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2Total
Kakamega Homeboyz0.86
Gor Mahia1.14
1X2
Kakamega Homeboyz
Draw
Gor Mahia
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 61%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
0-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Kakamega Homeboyz
1-5-4 (W-D-L)
Gor Mahia
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Kakamega Homeboyz
0–3–3
Gor Mahia
(6 last)
- Kakamega Homeboyz0-1Gor Mahia
- Gor Mahia1-0Kakamega Homeboyz
- Kakamega Homeboyz0-0Gor Mahia
- Gor Mahia2-0Kakamega Homeboyz
- Gor Mahia0-0Kakamega Homeboyz
- Kakamega Homeboyz1-1Gor Mahia
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kakamega Homeboyz 1458 · Gor Mahia 1535
| Kakamega Homeboyz | Draw | Gor Mahia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 33% | 41% |
| Market | 27% | 31% | 42% |
Estimated total (ours)
2 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gor Mahia (rating 1458 vs 1535).
- H2H favours Gor Mahia: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Kakamega Homeboyz | Gor Mahia | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 0.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.9 | 0.2 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 13/25/63% | 11/67/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.3 | 3 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0 | 3.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kakamega Homeboyz 0–3–3 Gor Mahia
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/26 Kenya Premier League | Kakamega Homeboyz | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Gor Mahia |
| 17/12/25 Kenya Premier League | Gor Mahia | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Kakamega Homeboyz |
| 26/01/25 Kenya Premier League | Kakamega Homeboyz | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Gor Mahia |
| 27/11/24 Kenya Premier League | Gor Mahia | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Kakamega Homeboyz |
| 06/04/24 Kenya Premier League | Gor Mahia | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Kakamega Homeboyz |
| 24/09/23 Kenya Premier League | Kakamega Homeboyz | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Gor Mahia |
Standings · Kenya Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gor Mahia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | 3K FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| 3 | Mara Sugar FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| 4 | AFC Leopards | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 5 | Shabana FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Kakamega Homeboyz | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | KCB | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 8 | Tusker | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Muranga Seal | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 3 |
| 10 | Nairobi United | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 11 | Posta Rangers | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
| 12 | Migori Youth | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | Administration Police FC | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 14 | APS Bomet | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 14 | Bandari FC | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 16 | Mathare United | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 17 | Ulinzi Stars | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| 18 | Mombasa United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Kakamega Homeboyz | Gor Mahia |
|---|---|---|
| Administration Police FC | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| AFC Leopards | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Muranga Seal | 0-1 L | 4-2 W |
| Nairobi United | 2-2 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Gor Mahia (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kakamega Homeboyz
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Ulinzi Stars Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 14/10 | Mombasa United Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 23/05 | Kariobangi Sharks Kenya Premier League |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 16/05 | AFC Leopards Kenya Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Muranga Seal Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | Gor Mahia Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | KCB Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 18/04 | Shabana FC Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 08/04 | Nairobi United Kenya Premier League |
2-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
Gor Mahia
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | Bandari FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 17/10 | APS Bomet Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 13/10 | Muranga Seal Kenya Premier League |
1-0 | 4-2 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 31/05 | Nairobi United Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 27/05 | Mara Sugar FC Kenya Premier League |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 17/05 | Muranga Seal Kenya Premier League |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Administration Police FC Kenya Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 14 | 4 | D |
| 03/05 | Kakamega Homeboyz Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | AFC Leopards Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 19/04 | Bandari FC Kenya Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kakamega Homeboyz vs Gor Mahia?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Gor Mahia win (41%). Probabilities: Kakamega Homeboyz 27%, draw 32%, Gor Mahia 41%.
How many goals are expected in Kakamega Homeboyz vs Gor Mahia?
The model expects 2 goals (Kakamega Homeboyz 0.86 · Gor Mahia 1.14), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Kakamega Homeboyz vs Gor Mahia?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.